Zambia exited a $13.4 billion restructuring after more than 3.5 years of talks, with China holding $5.7 billion of that debt. Beijing now presents Lusaka as a Belt and Road recovery example.

The economy is projected to grow 6.5% next year, above its long-term ~5% trend, but depends on new capital in copper, transport and power. That has turned Zambia into a contest between long-standing Chinese leverage and Western-backed corridors.

Debt Deal Shapes New Leverage

Premier Li Qiang arrives as Zambia shifts from crisis to investment, asking partners to move from loans to equity. Chinese firms have invested ≈$6 billion in two decades, mostly in metals, making Beijing a central stakeholder in post-crisis recovery.

One major friction point is the February acid spill from a Chinese-run plant that released 50,000 m³ of contaminated water into the Kafue River. The incident has become a domestic political issue, pressing both Hakainde Hichilema’s government and Chinese operators.

China Frames Zambia As Belt And Road Model

Beijing promotes Zambia as evidence that Belt and Road countries can stabilize once complex debt coordination—stalled for 3.5+ years—is resolved. Officials expect dozens of cooperation agreements and urge Lusaka to “draw on China’s technological and economic momentum.”

Zambia meanwhile insists on terms that support copper-sector expansion, manufacturing capacity and grid upgrades, not new sovereign borrowing.

Rail Corridors Define Strategic Competition

China’s push to revive the 1970s Tanzania–Zambia Railway (Tazara) is cast as a counter to the Lobito Corridor running from Angola through the DRC into Zambia. Earlier this month, a senior EU official announced fresh funding for transport, agriculture, energy and critical raw materials linked to Lobito.

Washington also signaled interest: Donald Trump Jr. met Hichilema on Sunday, underscoring U.S. attention to Zambia’s minerals and emerging supply chains. With debt talks settled, Lusaka is using this multi-actor race to steer all partners toward investment pledges rather than additional loans.