Production Scale, Not a Close Race

China remains the world’s largest automobile producer by a wide margin.

In 2024, Chinese factories produced about 31.3 million vehicles, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles, accounting for roughly 35% of global output.

By comparison, the European Union produced around 13–14 million vehicles in recent years.

Passenger car production in the EU stood at approximately 11.4 million units in 2024, a decline of 6.2% from 2023.

On a like-for-like basis, China’s output is about 2.5 to 2.8 times larger than the EU’s.

Even when broader estimates for 2025 are used—placing EU light-vehicle production in the 16–17 million range—China’s projected output of roughly 33 million vehicles still exceeds Europe’s by more than double.

Diverging Trajectories Into 2025

Forecasts for 2025 suggest the gap will persist.

China’s vehicle production is expected to rise modestly from 2024 levels, driven by continued expansion in electric vehicles (EVs) and strong domestic supply chains.

EU production, while stabilizing after post-pandemic disruptions, shows no comparable surge and remains below pre-2020 highs.

The contrast reflects structural differences rather than cyclical swings.

China’s automotive sector benefits from scale, integrated supply networks, and state-backed industrial policy, while Europe faces higher energy costs, slower demand growth, and pressure from the transition to electrification.

Trade Surplus Mirrors Manufacturing Power

The imbalance in production is closely mirrored in trade.

China’s goods trade surplus with the EU reached approximately €304–305 billion in 2024, according to Eurostat.

EU exports to China were about €213 billion, while imports from China totaled roughly €518 billion, leaving Europe with a record deficit.

Partial data for 2025 indicate the surplus is continuing to grow.

Rolling 12-month figures from late 2024 to late 2025 point to a surplus of around $310 billion, equivalent to roughly €285–290 billion depending on exchange rates.

Some estimates for the full year 2025 place the EU’s goods deficit with China above $350 billion, or approximately €320–330 billion, though final figures are not yet available.

Sectoral Pressure and Offsets

The widening gap is driven by surging Chinese exports of EVs, machinery, electronics, and consumer goods, alongside comparatively weaker EU exports.

European policymakers increasingly cite automotive and electronics as sectors under acute pressure from Chinese price competitiveness and scale.

The imbalance is partially offset by Europe’s surplus in services trade with China, estimated at about €22 billion in 2024.

However, this services surplus is small relative to the scale of the goods deficit and does little to alter the overall picture.

Structural, Not Temporary

Taken together, the data show that China’s dominance in vehicle production and its expanding trade surplus with the EU are structurally linked.

Both trends underscore the same reality: China’s manufacturing scale now significantly outpaces Europe’s, and the economic consequences are becoming more pronounced as trade volumes grow.