The leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan convened in Abu Dhabi on July 9 to advance negotiations on a long-awaited peace deal that could end nearly four decades of conflict between the two South Caucasus nations. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, meeting under the mediation of UAE officials, revisited a draft agreement finalized in March but still lacking a clear timeline for ratification.

Historical Grievances, Strategic Challenges

The core of the conflict centers on Nagorno-Karabakh, a region internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan but long populated by ethnic Armenians. After multiple wars, Azerbaijan launched a swift military offensive in September 2023, regaining control over the territory and prompting the exodus of almost all 100,000 ethnic Armenian residents.

Although the fighting has largely subsided, key sticking points remain:

• Azerbaijan demands changes to Armenia’s constitution, claiming it contains implicit territorial claims over Azerbaijani land.
• Baku is also pressing for a transport corridor through Armenia to connect its mainland with the Nakhchivan exclave, which borders Türkiye.
• Yerevan insists it is committed to peace, but Pashinyan has acknowledged that the constitution may need to be updated.

Diplomatic Thaw and Regional Context

The UAE summit follows months of intense regional diplomacy. Pashinyan and Aliyev last met in May on the sidelines of the European Political Community summit in Tirana, Albania. In June, Pashinyan held a rare and historic meeting in Istanbul with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, signaling a broader effort at regional normalization.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio recently expressed optimism that a binding peace agreement could soon be reached, underscoring Washington’s support for stability in the South Caucasus.

While recent weeks have seen fewer ceasefire violations along the heavily fortified 1,000-kilometer border, the lack of a binding peace deal continues to fuel mutual distrust.