“Trump and Witkoff Are Being Played by Putin": Why the Ukraine Peace Effort Collapsed?

The latest visit of Steve Witkoff, real estate developer cum Trump’s go to peace envoy, to Moscow to broker a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, appears to have failed. Putin’s aide, Yuri Ushakov, briefed the media after the visit that while the talks had been constructive a compromise peace plan had not been agreed.

Witkoff, and his sidekick, Trump’s son in law, Jared Kushner, were supposed to have gone on to Kyiv to talk through peace plans, but instead returned to the US.

Witkoff’s appointment as Trump’s point person on Russia - Ukraine has raised eyebrows as he comes with little or no experience on either country, or indeed the conflict. Now while having no prior baggage can be an advantage for a peace broker, Witkoff has hardly covered himself in glory during his time in his new role - often coming over as fawning of President Putin, and all too often to fall for the Russian line, hook line and sinker. Worse, in released audio taps, Witkoff is seen almost coaching the Kremlin how to play Trump in the run up to the creation of the now sidelined 28-point peace plan. There is zero trust now in Ukraine or Europe for Witkoff, who is seems as a tool, or asset of Moscow.

The problem with Witkoff, and I think Trump, is that they lack a fundamental understanding of the origins of this conflict and are totally misreading Putin. If only they would read Putin’s 5,000 odd word essay written in 2021 in the run up to the full scale invasion which spelled out Putin’s motivation for the invasion. This was not about securing the Donbas or a land corridor to Crimea. Putin spelled out that he did not accept the right of Ukraine to exist, and did not accept that Ukrainians have a separate national identity, separate to Russians. This is important as Trump and Witkoff think that the war can be ended by making some territorial concessions to Moscow - by Ukraine withdrawing from Donbas, and accepting the de facto loss of Crimea and territories occupied now by Russia in Kherson and Zaporizhiya. No, no, no. Putin’s agenda is the strategic control of the whole of Ukraine. He might accept some short term ceasefire deal where Ukraine is forced to hand over the remaining territory in Donbas, but Putin this would be a base camp on the accent to the total control of Ukraine. In negotiations Putin aims to encourage Trump to force Zelensky to accept a deal which he knows will be politically impossible to sustain at home. He hopes then that this will set in motion centrifugal political forces which will destabilise the country, politically, socially and economically. And Putin will use that as an opportunity for further invasion and territorial conquest.

Read my lips, Putin will stop at nothing but the total subjugation of Ukraine to Russia. The only way to stop that is to give Ukraine the tools to defeat Putin - finance and weapons.

But even the process of negotiations brings advantage to Putin. The mere fact that Trump is negotiating with Putin, over the heads of Ukraine and Europe, implies subjugation of both to the greater powers. It also weakens the Euroatlantic Alliance, and thrusts a spear through the heart of NATO. If during this process, Putin can persuade Trump to block arms supplies and intelligence sharing with Ukraine, and European allies, all the better. And perhaps also here Putin is pushing Trump to block European efforts now to seize immobilised CBR assets in its jurisdiction - it is encouraging the Belgian authorities to block these efforts. By creating uncertainty about arms supplies and funding to Ukraine, Putin hopes to break the confidence in Western support for Ukraine, and in so doing undermine Ukrainian morale in the fight.

Trump, and Witkoff, are being played for fools by Putin. Trump seems to have few cares about the longer term future of Ukraine, so focused is he on playing to his own ego and his aspirations to keep up with Obama in securing a Nobel peace prize. Trump wants a quick win, a ceasefire deal, which might stop the fighting for days, weeks, or perhaps months, but it’s hard to see any deal negotiated to Putin’s terms being sustainable. And any territorial give up would drive a tank thru the Helsinki Final Act of 1975 where Europe’s borders were set in stone and which has acted as a lynchpin for European security and stability ever since. It would be a green light for others to follow Putin’s script, for territorial land grabs by force. In Europe, where there are multitudes of territorial disputes and inter-Ethnic rivalries and disputes this would risk a catastrophic outlook.

For Trump his peace efforts on Russia - Ukraine are an ego trip, but Ukraine and Europe they are existential.