Filling a US-shaped gap: Türkiye to Capitalize on Washington's European Defense Exit

Ankara is positioning itself to fill the emerging security vacuum in Europe as the U.S. aggressively scales back its long-standing military commitments to the continent.

With Washington detailing plans to slash its European presence, including a 30 percent reduction in strategic bombers and a 50 percent cut in naval vessels, Ankara is moving to capitalize on both geopolitical and economic fronts.

The shift will take center stage at the upcoming NATO summit in Ankara on July 7-8, where President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will host allied leaders.

A Burgeoning Turkish Arms Industry

The upcoming summit is engineered to showcase dollars and deals to U.S. President Donald Trump, who has already initiated troop and weapon withdrawals from the continent.

Outside the diplomatic venues, a major exhibition of electronic warfare systems and ammunition will spotlight Türkiye's flourishing $10 billion arms export industry.

Ankara's defense exports have quadrupled since 2020, capitalizing on European rearmament driven by Russia's war in Ukraine.

Approximately 56 percent of these exports went to the U.S., Europe, and other Western allies last year, reflecting a structural turnaround from past decades of diplomatic friction.

European militaries are increasingly turning to NATO-compatible Turkish hardware to replace disappearing U.S. capabilities.

Deliveries include armored vehicles, jet trainers, and armed drones, exemplified by drone-maker Baykar forming a joint venture with Italy's Leonardo and Turkish Aerospace Industries securing a deal to supply 30 Hurjet aircraft to Spain.

Filling the Operational Vacuum

Beyond equipment procurement, Ankara is establishing itself as a vital infrastructure and operational anchor.

Türkiye is actively laying underground fuel pipelines as part of a $28 billion NATO infrastructure expansion program aimed at strengthening the alliance's fuel security.

The strategic necessity comes as U.S. cuts threaten to strip Europe of nearly all reconnaissance and attack drones while reducing fighter-jet deployments by a third.

Türkiye is utilizing its position to forge localized security agreements, recently exporting a naval warship to Romania—a NATO and EU member bordering Ukraine—for the first time in history.

Historically valued primarily for its critical geography and the sheer size of its military, Türkiye now couples its scale with high-rate industrial delivery.

Türkiye maintains the largest standing military in NATO after the U.S., having joined the alliance in 1952 along with neighbor Greece, and expanded its defense spending by 7 percent to $30 billion last year.

Diplomatic Leverage

The changing strategic landscape has dramatically enhanced Erdogan's diplomatic leverage within the alliance.

Once isolated for delaying Sweden's accession over counter-terrorism demands regarding the PKK terrorist organization, the Turkish president now acts as a critical intermediary with Washington.

Trump, who has regularly mused about a complete U.S. withdrawal from NATO, noted that he would attend the summit only out of respect for Erdogan, whom he described as a very good friend.

Transatlantic tensions have risen following a collapse in goodwill over defense budget metrics and broader regional conflicts, including Trump's war on Iran.

The summit could also provide an avenue to resolve long-standing bilateral disputes between Ankara and Washington.

Following friction over Türkiye's 2017 purchase of Russian S-400 air defense systems, U.S. sanctions, and its subsequent exclusion from the F-35 jet fighter program, Trump signaled that sales of jet engines to Ankara might resume following the bilateral meeting.

The operational contrast between Türkiye and other European allies has grown starker following recent actions during the U.S. conflict with Iran.

While eastern flank states invoked Article 4 consultations when drones and Russian jets breached their airspace, Turkish forces directly intercepted four Iranian ballistic missiles.