As NATO leaders prepare for a tense summit in The Hague, their priority is not only unity—but keeping President Trump satisfied amid his demand for drastically increased defense spending.

Trump’s 5% Defense Push Redefines NATO Priorities

President Trump’s insistence that all 32 NATO members allocate 5% of their GDP to defense has triggered a scramble within the alliance. In response, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte introduced a formula allowing 3.5% for core military expenses and the remaining 1.5% for “military-adjacent” investments, such as infrastructure and resilience.

The move, aimed at accommodating Trump, has faced criticism. “It is largely a shell game,” said Jeremy Shapiro of the European Council on Foreign Relations, noting that spending increases are more a reaction to Russia than to Trump.

Confusion, Pushback, and Political Optics

Defense ministers from NATO member states remain unclear about what qualifies as military spending and how soon they must meet the target. Some leaders have also questioned the inclusion of Ukraine-related expenditures.

“It will be the capabilities that will keep us safe, not percentages,” said Luxembourg’s Defense Minister Yuriko Backes, while Germany’s Boris Pistorius urged for a “realistic compromise.”

Even within the US, Trump’s push has caused friction. While his ambassador to NATO, Matthew Whitaker, stated that threats—not Washington—drive the timeline, others see Trump’s benchmark as both political theater and diplomatic leverage.

Ukraine Aid: Core Defense or Adjacent Spending?

Whether aid to Ukraine counts toward national defense budgets remains contested. Sweden’s Defense Minister Pal Jonson argued that such support “is really an investment into our own security,” but Eastern European countries prefer that it not dilute direct domestic defense spending.

The ambiguity over what qualifies has further complicated consensus, especially among countries that have only just reached the original 2% goal set in 2014.

Clock Ticking as Russia Threat Looms

Eastern flank members like Estonia are pushing for a faster timeline than the proposed 2032 deadline. NATO intelligence warns that Russia could pose a significant threat within five years of the war in Ukraine ending.

Some countries, like Britain, have set later spending targets, such as 3% by 2034. Others, including Canada, Italy, and Spain, are only now reaching the original 2% goal. The US, despite contributing nearly half of NATO’s defense budget in absolute dollars, spends about 3.4% of its GDP.

Trump’s pressure on NATO allies to spend more is not new—he originally floated the 5% target before taking office. Rutte’s plan, seen as a clever diplomatic balancing act, attempts to meet Trump’s demand without alienating allies. However, many see it as a symbolic gesture more than a functional reform.