With diplomacy intensifying around the Ukraine war, Washington is deploying senior envoys to press its vision for ending the conflict. Meetings in Berlin between Trump’s inner circle, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Europe’s top leaders are expected to test whether a US-backed peace formula can bridge deep political and territorial divides.

Washington Raises the Stakes

The presence of Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner signals a more forceful American approach. US officials say most technical elements of the negotiations are close to alignment, but acknowledge that the question of territory remains the decisive obstacle. In Washington’s view, Zelensky’s recent public remarks suggest room for movement.

The Hardest Line

Under the US framework, Russia’s demand for control over the entire Donbas region is factored into the proposal, despite the fact that roughly 14% of the area remains under Ukrainian control. The plan envisions contested zones being converted into demilitarized areas, combined with special economic arrangements.

Zelensky has voiced reservations about these ideas, particularly the concept of a “free economic zone,” and has called for revisions and clearer guarantees.

A Referendum as Political Cover

US officials interpret Zelensky’s suggestion of a referendum on territorial concessions as a potential opening. The Ukrainian leader has argued that only a direct vote could legitimize painful compromises.

European capitals have privately indicated they would stand behind Zelensky if he chose to put such a decision to the public, despite the immense practical challenges of holding a referendum during wartime.

Security Guarantees Move Forward

Talks on post-war security arrangements have advanced further than other tracks. According to US officials, Washington is ready to extend a security guarantee modeled on NATO’s Article 5, subject to approval by Congress and designed to be legally binding.

The goal, officials say, is to offer Ukraine meaningful deterrence without creating an open-ended military commitment.

A Three-Pillar Framework

The emerging US proposal rests on three separate agreements: a peace settlement, security guarantees, and a comprehensive reconstruction package. American officials say recent discussions have given Ukraine, for the first time, a clear “day-after” vision of what the country would gain alongside what it would concede.

Under the current outline, Ukraine would retain sovereignty over approximately 80% of its territory, receive the strongest security assurances in its history, and benefit from a substantial economic recovery and investment program.