Zapad 2025 drills put NATO’s east on alert

Russia and Belarus began their “Zapad 2025” joint exercises on Friday, days after Poland said Russian attack drones crossed its airspace during strikes on Ukraine. The Kremlin insists the drills were long planned and are not directed at any country, but frontline NATO members have raised alert levels and imposed temporary restrictions as the war in Ukraine and cross-border incidents sharpen regional risk.

Drills Begin Amid Drone Incursion Fallout

The exercise is running from September 12–16 at ranges in both countries, including sites near the Polish border. The Russian defence ministry said the goals are to improve command and staff skills and the field training of regional and coalition forces. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said, “These are planned exercises, they are not aimed against anyone,” rejecting claims of an “aggressive” show of force. The start follows a mid-week incident in which drones linked to Russia entered Polish airspace, prompting allied jets to scramble and emergency consultations at the UN.

Baltic Flank Tightens Security Measures

NATO’s eastern members moved quickly: Poland closed crossings with Belarus for the duration and restricted flights along its eastern border, while Lithuania and Latvia announced partial airspace closures. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned of “critical days,” saying his country was closer to “open conflict” than at any time since World War II. In Kyiv, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy cautioned that Moscow’s actions were “definitely not defensive and … directed precisely against not only Ukraine.” Regional air defences remained on heightened readiness as debris recovery and investigations continued.

Scale, Scenarios and Nuclear Dimension

Past iterations saw large troop numbers—around 200,000 in 2021—but this year’s drills are expected to be smaller, with forces tied down in Ukraine. Belarus initially cited about 13,000 personnel, then signalled a reduction; independent assessments in the lead-up suggested higher effective totals across dispersed activities. Minsk said the drills would feature nuclear-strike training and work with Russia’s new nuclear-capable Oreshnik missile, adding to allied concern around the Suwałki corridor scenario highlighted by Polish officials. Analysts split on the stakes, calling the event both real combat training and a demonstration.