Venezuela Considers Leaving OPEC, Six Decades After Founding It
Caracas is discussing a possible break with OPEC as Washington deepens its role in Venezuela’s oil sector, raising fresh questions over the cohesion and long-term influence of the cartel Venezuela helped establish in 1960.
Venezuela is considering leaving OPEC, potentially opening a historic rupture with the oil cartel it helped establish more than six decades ago as Washington expands its influence over Caracas and its petroleum industry.
The possibility has surfaced in discussions with U.S. officials, according to people familiar with the matter. No final decision has been made.
An exit would mark one of the clearest signs yet of Venezuela’s political and economic realignment since U.S. forces captured Nicolás Maduro on January 3 and acting President Delcy Rodríguez took power.
U.S. Role Expands
The OPEC discussions come as U.S. and Venezuelan negotiators separately examine whether Washington could take a large stake in Venezuelan oil fields.
One arrangement under discussion involves a possible 100-year lease covering several fields, according to people familiar with the private talks.
President Donald Trump has described Venezuela as the “51st state” and said the U.S. controls its oil.
A direct U.S. stake in Venezuelan petroleum assets would represent an unusually extensive intervention in another country’s economy and fit with Trump’s push to expand American influence across the Western Hemisphere.
His administration has also taken stakes in companies including Intel Corp., MP Materials Corp. and Lithium Americas Corp., while pursuing overseas natural-resource interests.
A Cartel Co-Founder Reconsiders
Venezuela was one of five countries that founded OPEC in 1960.
Its oil minister at the time, Juan Pablo Perez Alfonzo, played a central diplomatic role in creating the organization.
Caracas later helped shape OPEC+ in 2016, bringing core cartel members together with outside producers including Russia.
Its position inside the group has since weakened alongside the decline of Venezuela’s oil industry.
The country produced 1.16 million barrels a day in July, less than half its output a decade earlier. Production has nevertheless increased this year.
Venezuela is not currently bound by OPEC production limits because of the scale of its previous output decline.
That means an exit would probably have little immediate impact on global supply.
Its political significance, however, could be considerably greater.
Fresh Pressure on OPEC
Venezuela’s departure would deepen questions over OPEC’s internal cohesion at a time when some members have expressed frustration with the obligations of membership.
The United Arab Emirates announced four months ago that it would leave the cartel.
A second departure by one of OPEC’s founding members would sharpen concerns about whether the Saudi Arabia-led group can maintain unity and retain leverage over crude prices.
A broader erosion of discipline could also intensify competition among producers for market share, echoing the brief price war of 2020.
Some U.S. officials envision a larger oil alliance between Washington and Caracas that would weaken OPEC’s influence, according to one person familiar with the matter.
Another person said leaving the organization could allow Venezuela to maximize production over the longer term without facing potential future quotas, while giving Washington greater freedom to pursue its plans for the sector.
Opening Venezuela’s Oil Sector
A break with OPEC could also make it easier for international oil companies to expand their role in rebuilding Venezuela’s industry.
Major global producers have so far remained cautious, while smaller independent drillers and investors have shown greater appetite for Venezuelan opportunities during the political transition.
Washington and Caracas have already restored diplomatic ties, reopened the U.S. embassy and begun direct engagement between the Trump administration and Rodríguez’s government.
The U.S. has used sanctions relief, access to global finance and control over oil revenues as leverage in the relationship.
Chevron Corp. agreed in April to an asset swap with Venezuela that will substantially expand its operations in the country.
For Trump, who has long criticized OPEC over its influence on oil prices and U.S. fuel costs, a Venezuelan withdrawal would represent a significant shift.