US Hormuz Mission ‘Completely Unsustainable,’ Western Official Warns

A Western official based in the Gulf region has called the situation in the Strait of Hormuz “completely unsustainable,” according to a Washington Post report published October 30. The comment came as the United States highlights gains from its shipping protection operation, which has pushed oil flows back toward prewar levels.

The Post spoke to two Western officials based in the region and two other people with knowledge of the matter, all on condition of anonymity. They questioned how long the operation can last as Iranian attacks escalate, and whether the U.S. military can keep it going if heavy strikes on Iran resume after the November 3 midterm elections, as President Donald Trump has threatened.

Officials Doubt the Mission Can Last

“The situation is completely unsustainable,” one of the Western officials told the Post. The official said that while oil traffic has grown, few vessels carrying liquefied natural gas have taken the risk. “If one of those gets hit, it’s not just an oil spill; it’s an explosion,” the official said.

One of the people with knowledge of the matter, who is in contact with industry leaders and government officials, said shipping firms and U.S. allies in the region view the effort as an “imperfect, temporary measure.” The two officials said they had heard similar concerns. The UAE Embassy in Washington did not immediately respond to the Post’s request for comment on its role.

Private Shippers Stay Away

Most private shipping companies continue to refuse to use the strait even under U.S. protection, the Post reported, citing the people and officials it interviewed. Risk levels are so high that nearly all the vessels willing to make the trip are state-owned and operated.

Vessels registered for the crossing gather each day off the United Arab Emirates and receive instructions, including an order to switch off their AIS transponders. After exiting the strait, they transfer cargo to privately owned ships in the Gulf of Oman and head back to load again. Because so few ships are willing to take the risk, roughly the same group makes the round trip. “It’s a de facto shadow fleet,” the Western official said.

How the Protection Works

U.S. forces combine air defenses, fighter jets, drones and warships to shield vessels in layers as they pass through, according to a European security official and two people with knowledge of the operation. The European official likened it to a “bubble” that moves along the strait with the ships. The Army’s 82nd Airborne Division leads the mission from a joint operations center in the UAE, one of the people said.

Kevin Donegan, a retired vice admiral who commanded the Navy’s Fifth Fleet, told the Post the current effort has a smaller footprint than the 1980s tanker-war convoys. He called it “a moving sanctuary” that can be shifted to where ships are most vulnerable.

Oil Rebounds as Attacks Intensify

Kpler data cited by the Post show daily oil exports through the strait averaged 14 million barrels in the week ending October 18, about 80% of prewar levels and double the low of about 7 million in July. At least 30 ships a day have crossed this month, according to the Post’s sources. U.S. Central Command said on October 25 that more than 3,000 commercial vessels have transited with its support over six months and that U.S. forces have helped Gulf partners export more than 1.5 billion barrels of crude since summer. It said more than 95% of ships had sailed through safely. Clash Report reported on that CENTCOM statement and its claim of 1.5 billion barrels shipped.

The danger has grown at the same time. The UK Maritime Trade Operations center counted at least 25 ships hit in the strait in October, the most violent month of the war so far. United Nations data show two ships sank this month, and a source close to the shipping industry said Iran has begun aiming at engine rooms to disable vessels. Since U.S. operations ramped up in August, seven seafarers have been killed and 18 injured, according to the UN.

Analysts Disagree on the Verdict

Gregory Brew of the Eurasia Group said the United States “has achieved something pretty considerable” by overcoming Iran’s closure of the strait earlier this year, “but it’s not enough.” Prices have stayed high, and “as long as it’s contested, then Iran is achieving their objective,” he said. Donegan saw the operation differently, saying it may also be laying the groundwork for a regional coalition against Iran, with backing from the Emirati, Kuwaiti and Iraqi governments. Clash Report also reported that Gulf oil exports have surpassed prewar levels while Brent hovers around $110.