Ukraine is 'Gradually, Slowly Losing' the War: Fedorov

Former Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov has warned that Ukraine is drifting toward defeat, saying Kyiv has only several months to make major strategic decisions capable of changing the course of the war.

“I think that there's now a turning point which will determine our future trajectory, but it looks as though we're gradually, slowly losing,” Fedorov said.

The former minister argued that Ukraine still had “every chance” to prevail, but said the state lacked a coherent vision for ending the war and was failing to turn available military technology into an integrated battlefield advantage.

Governance Under Pressure

Fedorov blamed entrenched corruption, patronage networks and weak institutional independence for limiting Ukraine’s ability to adapt.

He described the state as operating at “5% effectiveness” and said political and bureaucratic shortcomings were preventing military innovation from being deployed at sufficient scale.

His criticism marked a sharp break with Kyiv’s public presentation of the war.

The presidential office responded that Fedorov had spoken positively about the conduct of the conflict while serving as defense minister, adding that the principal change since then was his own political status.

Fedorov was dismissed last month, six months after his appointment. His attempts to reform procurement and mobilization had brought him into conflict with sections of the military establishment and political rivals.

Technology Without Strategy

At the center of Fedorov’s argument is what he sees as a failure to organize existing technologies into a coherent military system.

He highlighted autonomous drones using artificial intelligence, low-cost interceptor missiles and Ukraine’s ballistic missile program as areas capable of altering the balance.

“Technologies exist already which could completely stop the Russians, but our absence of vision ... means we do not apply them,” he said.

Fedorov proposed a battlefield increasingly monitored by electronic sensors and defended by unmanned systems operating both on the ground and in the air, reducing the number of troops required at exposed frontline positions.

Ukrainian companies are already developing many of the systems he identified. Fedorov said the central problem was not technological availability but the absence of a unified strategy for deploying them.

Pressure on the Front

His warning comes as Ukraine faces continued Russian missile attacks against factories and warehouses while stocks of interceptors remain constrained.

Russian forces are advancing more slowly than last year but continue to make incremental gains in the Donbas. Ukraine, meanwhile, is relying heavily on conscripts across lightly staffed frontline positions.

Kyiv has also expanded drone and missile strikes deep inside Russia, damaging military production facilities and oil refineries and contributing to fuel shortages.

Fedorov said he had helped drive a separate drone campaign targeting Russian fuel supplies and military logistics in occupied southern Ukraine.

He argued that Kyiv has only a few months to exploit the operation before Moscow adapts, with the campaign aimed in part at increasing pressure on Russian-occupied Crimea.

Budget Dispute

The former minister’s spending decisions have also become part of a widening political dispute.

Fedorov previously said the strike campaign benefited from his decision to bring forward spending originally allocated for the second half of 2026.

President Volodymyr Zelensky said that approach had left a $27 billion gap in the defense ministry’s budget, without an identified solution for donor-dependent Ukraine.

Fedorov disputed the figure.

“By the end of the year, the budget deficit under our planning was around five billion dollars, and we knew where we would get it,” he said. “Perhaps the plan changed and new projects emerged that require such a budget.”

He said his ministry had expected procurement savings and international support to cover the remaining shortfall.

Fedorov also alleged that when he entered the ministry, some department heads had been installed at the request of Ukrainian defense companies to advance their commercial interests.

Political Challenge

Fedorov has broadened his criticism beyond military management.

Last week he became the first major Ukrainian political figure to call for wartime elections, describing the country as facing a systemic governance crisis.

Zelensky rejected the proposal, arguing that holding elections during the conflict could undermine the country as it fights Russia.

Ukraine has remained under martial law since Russia’s February 2022 invasion, preventing elections on security grounds.

The president also suggested that outside forces could be influencing Fedorov’s position. Fedorov denied the allegation.

Despite the logistical obstacles, Fedorov said Ukraine could develop new mechanisms to hold a vote. He has not said whether he would seek the presidency.

For now, he plans to divide his efforts between advocating for restored elections and investing in military technology, including a new fund for which he intends to seek capital during a trip to the U.S.

His broader warning is that Ukraine’s remaining room for strategic adjustment is narrowing.

Without changes to governance, military planning and technological deployment, Fedorov argues, the current trajectory will become increasingly difficult to reverse.