UAE Directly Warned Netanyahu Before Oct. 7, He Disregarded It

UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed warned Benjamin Netanyahu roughly a week and a half before October 7, 2023 that Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar was preparing a major operation against Israel, according to an investigation based on senior sources and internal material.

Netanyahu reportedly played down the threat, saying he believed Hamas was focused on the West Bank and that Israel was prepared for any scenario, according to Haaretz.

The warning was not passed to the heads of the Shin Bet, Mossad or Israel Defense Forces, according to the investigation. Netanyahu’s office denies that the conversation took place.

A Direct Warning from Abu Dhabi

The 45-minute call came in the final days of September after months of concern in Abu Dhabi over rising tensions in Gaza and the West Bank.

President Isaac Herzog said bin Zayed had repeatedly pushed for de-escalation and had sent an envoy to meet Netanyahu.

The UAE president’s concern intensified after information reached Abu Dhabi through a Palestinian intermediary with ties to Gaza.

Sinwar had warned that he was preparing a “zilzal,” an earthquake, if indirect negotiations with Israel continued to stall.

A Palestinian adviser close to bin Zayed said the message was initially met with caution.

After a second meeting with Sinwar, however, the adviser concluded that the Hamas leader was signaling plans for war.

Sinwar told the intermediary that he was preparing “the mother of all surprises. A terrifying operation. Something extraordinary.”

The adviser briefed bin Zayed, who decided that the message had to reach Israel’s leadership.

Netanyahu Points to the West Bank

During the late-September call, bin Zayed told Netanyahu that Sinwar appeared to be preparing a major operation and urged Israel to take defensive precautions.

“The emir explained that, in his assessment, Sinwar was preparing for a major event,” the adviser said. “He told Netanyahu that Israel should be ready.”

Bin Zayed also warned that a major confrontation could destabilize the region and damage the Abraham Accords.

Netanyahu responded that he believed Hamas intended to operate in the West Bank, according to people familiar with the call, and reassured the Emirati president that Israel was ready.

Bin Zayed later discussed the warning with CIA Director William J. Burns, telling him that he had tried to convey to Netanyahu that “something there is about to explode.”

Security Chiefs Were Not Briefed

The warning was not shared with Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar, Mossad director David Barnea or IDF chief of staff Herzl Halevi, the investigation found.

That omission came despite separate warning signs already under examination inside Israel’s security establishment.

On September 15, the intermediary and bin Zayed’s adviser had also passed Sinwar’s “earthquake” message to the Shin Bet.

Bar spoke with Netanyahu, and senior officials convened meetings involving the Shin Bet, Military Intelligence, Mossad and the National Security Council.

the Officials did not conclude that Hamas was preparing a large-scale assault from Gaza. One assessment was that Sinwar could be seeking additional leverage in prisoner negotiations.

Bar nevertheless warned that Israel was “on a collision course” and recommended either a sharp offensive move or stronger defensive preparations in Gaza and the West Bank.

No decision followed.

A Second Warning

The UAE president decided to intervene personally after seeing no clear Israeli response to the earlier warning.

A similar message reached Netanyahu around the same period from Egyptian intelligence chief Abbas Kamel, who warned of “something unusual, a terrifying operation” being prepared by Hamas.

Netanyahu reportedly again identified the West Bank as the main area of concern.

On October 1, Bar raised Hamas activity once more and recommended targeting senior figures, including Sinwar.

Netanyahu asked officials to keep preparing options but instructed them to calm the situation for now.

The UAE warning was not mentioned during the discussion.

A senior Shin Bet official said that knowing about bin Zayed’s warning could have changed how Israeli intelligence interpreted Sinwar’s earlier messages and his abrupt withdrawal from indirect negotiations.

“If we had known about the warnings, there’s a chance it would have given more weight to the first message we received from Sinwar,” the official said.

October 7

At 6:29 a.m. on October 7, Hamas launched its attack.

The assault involved mass killings, destruction and the abduction of civilians and soldiers into Gaza.

The warning that bin Zayed had reportedly delivered directly to Netanyahu roughly 10 days earlier had, according to the investigation, never reached Israel’s senior security chiefs.

Netanyahu’s office rejected the account as an “absolute lie.”

“Prime Minister Netanyahu didn’t speak to the president of the UAE during the period in question and received no warning from him,” it said.

Former Shin Bet chief Bar and former IDF chief Halevi said they had not been informed of a warning delivered by bin Zayed.