Trump’s Syria Pivot Undercuts Israeli Military Strategy

Since the fall of Bashar al-Assad on December 8, 2024, Israel has conducted a fierce air campaign—over 700 strikes—across Syria, targeting military infrastructure and weapon stockpiles to prevent hostile groups from gaining a foothold near its borders. But that strategy has been thrown into disarray after U.S. President Donald Trump’s dramatic reversal in policy toward Damascus.

On May 14, Trump met with Syria’s new Islamist rebel-turned-president Ahmed al-Shara and pledged to lift all U.S. sanctions, offering diplomatic lifelines after 14 years of civil war. “He’s got a real shot at pulling it together,” Trump said during a speech in Saudi Arabia, declaring his intent to restore normal ties.

Israeli Strikes Suddenly Paused

The effects were immediate. Israel’s airstrikes, which included a May 2 attack near the presidential palace in Damascus, have nearly ceased. “This is absolutely a lesson from southern Lebanon,” said Uzi Arad, former Israeli national security adviser, pointing to past failures in allowing militant groups to entrench near the border.

Before Trump’s declaration, Israel had focused on denying Syria access to heavy weaponry once controlled by Assad’s regime. Now, according to Carmit Valensi of the Institute for National Security Studies, the Israeli government appears to be reconsidering its aggressive approach: “All of this is indicating a direction of deconfliction and de-escalation.”

Behind Israel’s broader strategy lies concern over the Golan Heights and Turkish encroachment. Israeli officials fear Turkish President Erdogan could use Syria as a platform for regional military expansion. “If the Turks try to help the regime build capacities that might be used against Israel, there might be conflict,” warned Yaakov Amidror, another former adviser.