Trump Withholds Netanyahu Endorsement as Israeli Re-Election Campaign Struggles

Donald Trump has repeatedly declined to endorse Benjamin Netanyahu ahead of Israel's Oct. 27 parliamentary elections, withholding a crucial political endorsement as the incumbent prime minister trails in domestic polls.

During a meeting at the Oval Office, Trump questioned Netanyahu directly about his polling trajectory.

When Netanyahu hesitated, an aide intervened to claim, "Mr. President, he is winning," according to a U.S. official familiar with the discussion talking to Axios.

Domestic polling paints a different picture. Netanyahu's governing coalition is projected to secure between 49 and 53 seats, far below its current 68-seat majority and the 61-seat threshold required to form a government, while opposition parties hold 67 to 70 seats.

Netanyahu's primary challenger, former military chief Gadi Eizenkot, consistently leads the prime minister in favorability ratings.

With 75 days remaining before the vote, Netanyahu's immediate objective has shifted from securing an outright majority to preventing the opposition from forming a governing coalition, which would allow him to remain caretaker prime minister.

Mounting Strategic Daylight

While close advisers initially expected Trump to endorse Netanyahu, strategic and political priorities between the two leaders have increasingly diverged over military operations in Iran, Lebanon, and Gaza.

Trump has privately voiced mounting frustration with the prime minister's governance, remarking to associates that "Bibi is his own worst enemy."

Tensions intensified following Netanyahu's public opposition to Trump's Gaza Board of Peace initiative.

However, following discussions with U.S. envoy Jared Kushner, Netanyahu agreed to curb strikes in Gaza, enabling Israeli forces to withdraw to the designated Yellow Line ahead of Kushner's upcoming regional visit.

"We understand Bibi's political needs. We have no problem with it as long as he continues to do what we ask, especially regarding restraining attacks in Gaza," a senior U.S. official noted.

Opposition Lobbying

Israeli opposition figures, including Eizenkot, Naftali Bennett, and Yair Lapid, have utilized diplomatic backchannels and donors to urge the White House to maintain neutrality in the election.

A former U.S. official indicated that Netanyahu's deteriorating poll numbers have made Trump hesitant to commit his political capital to the incumbent leader.

When questioned publicly four times in recent weeks regarding an endorsement, Trump repeatedly deflected, referring to Netanyahu as a "great wartime prime minister" only in the past tense.

Asked if any candidate could better manage the role, Trump sidestepped: "Well, I don't know most of them. I know some of them, obviously, but I don't know most of them."

Broader Regional Imperatives

The upcoming Israeli election intersects directly with Washington's broader Middle East objectives, including diplomatic initiatives involving Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, and Syria.

Administration officials remain determined to prevent Israeli domestic political gridlock from stalling regional diplomacy, recalling the protracted 2019 electoral cycle.

The White House intends to advance its regional agenda without allowing Israeli coalition politics to disrupt its timetable.