The confirmation suggests a new layer of security around sanction-evading shipping, sharpening concerns over escalation, maritime safety, and regional stability.

The assessment emerged from statements made on December 15–16, 2025, by senior Swedish Navy and Coast Guard officials and was first reported by SVT Nyheter.

It comes amid intensified monitoring of Russian maritime activity following Sweden’s NATO accession in 2024 and heightened Baltic enforcement of oil sanctions.

Official Confirmation From Stockholm

Marko Petkovic, Chief of Operations for the Swedish Navy, said authorities have credible indications of armed personnel aboard certain Russian-linked tankers. 

“We have seen and received information that there are uniformed personnel aboard some of these shadow fleet vessels,” he stated, describing individuals who were armed and wearing military-style uniforms.

Petkovic stressed that the personnel are “likely from private security companies,” not necessarily active-duty Russian forces. 

Even so, the assessment marks the first time a NATO-member or NATO-adjacent navy has officially confirmed such observations, moving earlier reports from rumor into the realm of state-backed intelligence.

“Fairly Constant” Naval Presence

Swedish officials link the armed guards to a broader Russian effort to protect its so-called shadow fleet—hundreds of aging tankers with opaque ownership structures used to export oil despite G7 price caps and European Union bans. 

According to Petkovic, Russian measures include a “fairly constant presence” of Baltic Fleet warships in key areas of the Baltic Sea and the Gulf of Finland.

Daniel Stenling, Deputy Head of Operations at the Swedish Coast Guard, said his service has noted increased Russian naval activity near strategic coastal zones. 

He added that the Coast Guard itself has not directly observed armed personnel aboard tankers, but acknowledged the fleet’s “critical importance” to Russia’s economy and wartime revenue.

Sanctions, Shipping, And Risk

Western maritime analysts estimate that the shadow fleet handles roughly 90 percent of Russia’s seaborne crude oil exports. 

Many of the vessels are older, flagged in non-Western jurisdictions, and operate with limited insurance coverage, raising concerns about spills, collisions, and accountability in congested waterways.

Enhanced Baltic monitoring by Sweden, Denmark, Finland, and other regional actors has coincided with what officials describe as more assertive Russian protection measures. 

Petkovic said there is “no need to be concerned” at present, but emphasized that greater transparency at sea is necessary to avoid misunderstandings or accidents.

Escalation Or Deterrence?

Rumors of armed personnel surfaced earlier in autumn 2025, when Danish military pilots reported threatening encounters near shadow fleet tankers. 

The Swedish confirmation now gives those accounts official backing, though no public photographs of the guards have been released, with observations believed to rely on aerial and maritime surveillance.

Western and maritime-focused outlets have framed the development as a step toward militarizing commercial shipping to shield sanctions evasion. 

Pro-Russian media, by contrast, portray the measures as defensive, citing alleged “NATO provocations” or risks of interference with tankers.

Swedish authorities continue to describe their response as monitoring rather than escalation, while acknowledging rising tensions across the Baltic maritime domain.