Sharif Says Pakistan Will Rank Sixth-Largest Economy Before 2050

Speaking at a minerals investment forum in Islamabad on Friday, Pakistan’s prime minister offered his own amendment to a long-term Goldman Sachs ranking that places the country sixth in global GDP by 2075.

“By Goldman Sachs’ assessment, by 2075, Pakistan will be the sixth-largest economy in the world,” Shehbaz Sharif said at the Pakistan Minerals Investment Forum 2026.

“I would like to make a small amendment here — instead of 2075, it will be earlier than 2050.”

Goldman Projects Sixth Place in 2075

The assessment he cited is “The Path to 2075 — Slower Global Growth, But Convergence Remains Intact,” a December 2022 paper by Goldman Sachs economists Kevin Daly and Tadas Gedminas.

That study does project Pakistan as the world’s sixth-largest economy in 2075, measured in real U.S. dollars, behind China, India, the United States, Indonesia and Nigeria.

Accounts of the paper put Pakistan’s projected real GDP at $12.7 trillion and GDP per capita at $27,100 by then, with Indonesia, Nigeria and Pakistan each still less than one-third the size of China, India or the United States.

The authors view the results “less as a forecast and more as a method of uncovering broad global dynamics,” and condition Pakistan’s rise on “the appropriate policies and institutions.” Population growth is the main driver of the 2075 ranking.

The paper warns that climate change and protectionism could derail the projections, especially for low-income countries exposed to environmental shocks.

For 2050, the same report lists the five largest economies as China, the United States, India, Indonesia and Germany. Pakistan does not appear in that top five.

Sharif Ties Forecast to Minerals Push

Sharif made the remarks as Islamabad sought foreign investment in copper, gold and other minerals and pledged to stop shipping resources abroad in raw form.

He said copper and gold production at the long-stalled Reko Diq project is expected to start in 2028, and he called on investors to “mine in Pakistan, process in Pakistan, manufacture in Pakistan, and then export to the rest of the world.”

Economy Remains Under an IMF Program

The ambition sits against a much smaller starting point. The International Monetary Fund estimates Pakistan’s 2026 nominal GDP at about $450 billion, ranking the country 42nd in the world.

Islamabad is still in a $7 billion Extended Fund Facility with the Fund. Staff reached agreement in October on the fourth review, which would release about $1 billion if the IMF board approves it.

Pakistan has previously sought additional U.S. financing to reduce its reliance on strict IMF conditions, while army chief Asim Munir has also pitched Balochistan’s minerals to American audiences.

The outreach sits alongside Pakistan’s existing economic partnership with China.