Saudi Arabia and Houthis Edge Closer to Full-Scale War

Saudi Arabia is moving closer to a renewed military confrontation with Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis after weeks of missile, drone and maritime attacks against Saudi ships, airports and oil infrastructure.

Riyadh says it still prefers peace. But a Saudi official told The New York Times that the kingdom is prepared for war and could resume airstrikes in support of Yemen’s internationally recognized government if Houthi attacks continue.

The shift raises the prospect of another major front in the wider conflict involving Iran, the Houthis’ principal backer.

Political Channels Break Down

Years of Saudi-Houthi dialogue appear to be unraveling as attacks and counterstrikes intensify.

“I am not seeing a political offramp at this point,” said Mohammed al-Basha, a Washington-based analyst focused on Yemen. “War is coming.”

The Houthis this week claimed a ballistic missile attack against a Saudi oil tanker and two strikes on Saudi-backed forces inside Yemen.

Their military spokesman, Yahya Saree, warned that further escalation would be met with “stronger and more severe strikes.”

Saudi Arabia has already carried out limited airstrikes in Yemen. The Houthis, meanwhile, have launched missiles and drones into Saudi territory and targeted Saudi vessels in the Red Sea.

Riyadh Signals Military Readiness

A Saudi official said Riyadh would defend itself by any means necessary and could use air power to support Yemeni government forces against the Houthis.

Signs of a broader military buildup are also emerging.

Ahmed Nagi, a senior Yemen analyst at the International Crisis Group, said Saudi Arabia has strengthened coordination among rival anti-Houthi factions and supplied them with advanced weapons.

Abdullah al-Alimi, a member of Yemen’s presidential leadership council, has also praised Saudi training and support for government forces.

He said it had become “inevitable” that Saudi-backed forces would retake Sanaa, the capital held by the Houthis.

Houthis Threaten Saudi Oil Infrastructure

The Houthis say their recent attacks are intended to pre-empt an offensive they claim Saudi Arabia and Yemeni government forces are preparing.

Mohammed al-Bukhaiti, a Houthi political official, said the group was already “practically in a state of war with Saudi Arabia.”

He warned that full-scale conflict would bring attacks against Saudi oil and other critical infrastructure.

The threat carries added weight because Saudi Arabia has become increasingly dependent on the Red Sea for oil exports after Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz following the outbreak of the Iran war.

Houthi attacks on Saudi shipping have already added pressure to global energy markets.

Maritime Blockade Drives Escalation

The latest confrontation began after the Houthis accused Saudi Arabia of bombing Yemen’s main international airport to prevent an Iranian aircraft from landing. Riyadh denied the allegation.

The Houthis subsequently announced a maritime blockade targeting Saudi ships in the Red Sea.

Missile and drone attacks inside Saudi Arabia followed, alongside strikes on vessels and intensified fighting against Saudi-backed forces in Yemen.

Saudi officials accuse the Houthis of attempting to bypass U.N. inspections and other measures intended to stop weapons and financing from reaching the group.

The Houthis, in turn, accuse Saudi Arabia of restricting food, medicine and other supplies entering Yemen. Riyadh rejects that charge.

Washington Pressed to Back Saudi Allies

Saudi Arabia has also taken its concerns to Washington.

Princess Reema bint Bandar, Saudi Arabia's ambassador to the United States, joined Yemeni ambassador Jamila Rajaa for meetings with members of Congress earlier this month.

According to officials familiar with the discussions, the ambassadors pressed the case for stronger resistance to the Houthis and encouraged U.S. backing.

Rajaa later called for Washington to sustain and expand support for Yemen’s military, increase humanitarian assistance and broaden its terrorist designation of the Houthis.

The precise form of any U.S. support remains unclear.

Risk of Another Yemen Quagmire

A renewed Saudi campaign would carry significant risks.

Riyadh’s intervention beginning in 2015 failed to dislodge the Houthis from northern Yemen and developed into a conflict lasting roughly a decade.

The war devastated Yemen, with hundreds of thousands dying from fighting, hunger and disease.

Saudi Arabia later shifted toward negotiations after a 2022 truce, seeking to contain the Houthis along its southern border and gain influence over the group.

That approach has now come under pressure as the regional conflict involving Iran reshapes Houthi calculations.

Analysts say the group is seeking both to assist Tehran and to strengthen its position inside Yemen, including by securing access to oil resources and demanding recognition as a legitimate state.

Large-Scale Conflict Risk Returns

Fighting between the Houthis and Saudi-backed Yemeni forces has escalated sharply in recent weeks.

U.N. envoy Hans Grundberg warned the Security Council on August 13 that Yemen faced its greatest danger of returning to large-scale war since the 2022 truce.

Saudi Arabia has strong incentives to avoid that outcome. Another prolonged conflict could consume military resources and threaten Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s plans to develop the kingdom as a business and tourism center.

But neither side is showing clear signs of retreat.

Analysts say completely defeating the Houthis remains unrealistic. A renewed Saudi campaign could instead aim to weaken the movement and force political concessions in negotiations over Yemen’s future.

The danger is that a limited campaign does not remain limited.

“No party controls where escalation leads,” Grundberg said. “The only certainty is that the Yemeni people will pay the price.”