Russia Secretly Plans Major Expansion of Kamikaze Drone Production

Russia is preparing a major expansion of the industrial base behind its long-range attack drones, with internal plans pointing to enough new carbon fiber capacity to support tens of thousands of additional weapons each year.

Documents from state-owned Rosatom show plans to expand its Alabuga-Volokno facility in Tatarstan, adding up to 500 tons of aerospace-grade carbon fiber production annually by 2029.

Weapons expert David Albright estimates that volume could provide enough material for about 28,000 Shahed-136-type drone airframes a year, according to POLITICO.

Ukraine estimates Russia can already manufacture more than 36,000 Geran attack drones annually.

That would amount to a potential 78% increase in production capacity.

Carbon Fiber Expansion

Carbon fiber is a critical structural material in Russia’s Geran-2, which is based on the Iranian Shahed design.

It strengthens the wings and internal structures while keeping the drone light.

“Without the carbon fiber, they can't make the drone,” Albright said.

Rosatom’s documents identify import substitution and demand from Russia’s aviation and defense sectors as key reasons for expanding the plant.

The project includes plans for a new PAN precursor facility inside the Alabuga Special Economic Zone. Polyacrylonitrile, or PAN, is used to manufacture high-specification carbon fiber.

The documents specify production of UMT42S-3K carbon fiber for aerospace applications.

Metadata indicates the material was created late last year by an employee of UMATEX, Rosatom’s advanced materials division.

Construction Under Way

The Russian government approved plans in May for a new production line at Alabuga-Volokno that could produce up to 500 tons of carbon fiber each year.

Business, engineering and construction documents gathered from Russian sources by the Ukrainian Security and Cooperation Center detail the proposed expansion.

Satellite images from May through July show land next to the existing facility being cleared, according to a Ukrainian official.

Albright, who separately obtained imagery from August, said preparations for the foundation were under way.

The project documents envisage completion of the new factory in 2027.

The U.S. House Select Committee on China reviewed the documents and determined they were authentic, according to a U.S. government official familiar with their contents.

A Ukrainian official said Kyiv had also verified them.

Reducing Reliance on Imports

The expansion is part of a broader Russian effort to increase domestic production of materials needed for drones and reduce dependence on imports.

Moscow aims to manufacture around 130,000 drones for its national Unmanned Aerial Systems project by 2030, according to an analysis by the Center for Strategic and International Studies cited in the draft material. That target rises to 350,000 by 2035.

Alabuga-Volokno would help Russia reduce reliance on imported PAN precursor and carbon fiber.

Earlier shipping and customs documents showed the same plant received 46 tons of carbon-fiber-related chemicals from a Chinese state corporation through a disguised shipment.

Rosatom has previously said it and its subsidiaries operate in compliance with applicable laws and regulations.

China’s embassy in Washington said it was unaware of the expansion plans and that Beijing “strictly controls exports of dual-use items in accordance with law.”

Drone Output and European Concerns

Drones produced at the Alabuga Special Economic Zone have become central to Russia’s long-range strike campaign against Ukraine.

Moscow has also continued modifying the Geran platform, including adding jet engines to some versions to increase speed and range.

Stacie Pettyjohn of the Center for a New American Security said the weapons allow Russia to launch large volleys against deep targets and attempt to overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses.

“It's been a very good coercive tool and critical to Russia's deep strike campaign,” she said.

The Alabuga factory and UMATEX are sanctioned by the U.S., U.K. and other Western governments.

Serhii Kuzan, head of the Ukrainian Security and Cooperation Center, said the expansion should be viewed as a longer-term European security issue, citing Russian drone violations of Polish and Romanian airspace.

Nicholas Fenton of CSIS said Moscow was continuing to improve the systems while expanding output.

“The Russians are gaining momentum in the air war, continuing to iterate these systems, continuing to expand production,” he said. “There's significant concern over what might be coming.”