Russia Ramps Up Drone and Missile Production, West Struggles to Keep Up

Russia is scaling a new generation of relatively cheap jet-powered weapons, using Chinese components and rapid production cycles to field new drones and cruise missiles faster than Ukraine or its Western partners.

The Geran-5 drone and Banderol cruise missile show how Moscow has shortened the path from battlefield experimentation to mass production.

Both are estimated to cost about $100,000, compared with more than $2 million for high-end U.S. Tomahawk missiles and comparable Russian systems, according to The Wall Street Journal.

Chinese Components Drive Production

The weapons rely heavily on Chinese-made technology, according to Ukrainian assessments and analysts examining recovered wreckage.

Jet engines, navigation computers and communications electronics are among the components identified. Much of the equipment is commercially available dual-use technology.

China has said it regulates exports of technologies that could be used in warfare.

“Russia is critically dependent on Chinese components” for its drone program, said Mike Monnik, chief executive of DroneSec.

Russian engineers have used off-the-shelf electronics to improve navigation, communications and resistance to jamming.

Once designs prove effective, manufacturers can move quickly towards high-volume production.

Geran Evolves Into a Missile-Like Weapon

Russia’s Geran drones began as versions of Iran’s relatively slow, propeller-driven Shahed aircraft.

Ukraine became increasingly effective at intercepting those systems after investing in counter-drone equipment and training.

Russia responded through successive upgrades focused on speed, survivability and electronics.

The Geran-5 represents a sharper shift. Its design and performance are closer to a missile than to the delta-wing Shaheds from which the program developed.

“It’s essentially a poor-man’s cruise missile,” Monnik said.

The change complicates defenses built around slower propeller-powered drones.

Chinese jet engines used in Gerans cost $45,000 or less, according to DroneSec estimates, while defenders may need to launch several interceptors against a single target.

Russia Compresses the Innovation Cycle

Banderol and Geran-5 occupy an economic middle ground between basic one-way drones and sophisticated cruise missiles.

Their importance lies not only in price or performance, but in how quickly Russia has developed, tested, and manufactured them.

“Here in the West, we tend to underestimate Russia, but they can go very fast from idea and experimentation to production,” Kateryna Bondar of the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Wadhwani AI Center told the WSJ.

“This loop is something Western militaries should learn from Russia.”

Ukraine has also demonstrated rapid innovation, including developing an effective jet drone. But it has fewer production resources and less capacity to plan beyond immediate battlefield requirements.

The U.S. and other NATO members face a different constraint: expanding production of systems such as Patriot interceptors while accelerating the transition from new technologies to mass-produced weapons.

“Now we see that mass is a huge part of success,” Bondar said.

Cheap Weapons Raise Defense Costs

Russia’s approach creates an economic problem for Ukraine and NATO.

U.S. and allied forces have used expensive Patriot missiles and fighter aircraft against much cheaper drones and missiles.

Western companies are now developing faster, lower-cost interceptors, including jet-powered systems.

But sourcing inexpensive jet engines remains difficult for Western manufacturers, while Russia has access to comparatively cheap Chinese components.

The broader challenge is integrating defenses against weapons operating at different speeds, ranges and altitudes.

Ukraine must simultaneously confront drones, ballistic missiles and glide bombs. The latter remain particularly difficult to stop.

“While the drones are a problem, by far the biggest problem for Ukraine is glide bombs,” said Justin Bronk of the Royal United Services Institute.

NATO members have pledged more than $40bn over five years for counter-drone capabilities.

Yet the central problem remains the speed of adaptation. Bondar said Ukraine had indications for years that Russia was developing jet-powered drones and inexpensive cruise missiles but was not prepared for their deployment at scale.

“It was obvious quite a while ago that we’d end up here,” she said. “I’m surprised everyone is surprised.”