Record Turnout May Put Israel's Arab Parties in Kingmaker Role

Arab parties could hold the balance in negotiations over Israel’s next government after record turnout among their supporters strengthened the electoral challenge to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Exit polls from Israeli broadcasters indicate that Raam and the Joint List could secure historically strong parliamentary representation following Tuesday’s election.

Official results remain pending.

Their projected gains could give Arab lawmakers substantial influence over whether Netanyahu’s opponents can assemble a government.

However, turning that influence into a viable coalition would require overcoming entrenched resistance to Arab participation.

Abbas Sets His Priority

Mansour Abbas, leader of the socially conservative Raam party, said the mobilization reflected a shift from “frustration and despair” to “hope” among Arab voters.

Speaking in a television interview, Abbas said he sought to replace Netanyahu’s government “in every possible way.”

His immediate objective was to preserve the possibility of forming an alternative administration.

Arab citizens account for about 20% of Israel’s population.

Anger over Netanyahu’s approach to Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank, alongside grievances over unequal treatment inside Israel, helped drive voters to the polls.

Netanyahu’s campaign also included explicit appeals to anti-Arab prejudice.

Seats Do Not Guarantee a Coalition

The central obstacle is political acceptance. Many Jewish Israelis oppose governments whose parliamentary survival depends on Arab lawmakers.

Raam has crossed that threshold before. In 2021, it entered the coalition led by Naftali Bennett, joining an alliance formed to remove Netanyahu from office.

The left-wing Joint List has no equivalent record of coalition participation.

Raam’s involvement provoked anger among many right-wing Jewish voters.

After the Bennett government fell roughly a year later, those voters backed Netanyahu, who subsequently assembled Israel’s most hard-line government.

Grievances Drive Mobilization

Most Arab citizens descend from Palestinians who stayed during the 1948 war surrounding Israel’s establishment.

They largely reside in towns separate from Jewish communities and contend with violence and discriminatory housing rules.

Disputes over the country’s identity as a Jewish state have also discouraged electoral participation over successive decades.

This election brought a different response: greater participation aimed at removing Netanyahu.

Whether that turnout produces a change of government now depends on the final seat distribution and the willingness of other parties to work with Arab representatives.