The United States has begun withdrawing nonessential diplomatic personnel from several Middle Eastern countries as tensions with Iran intensify and the prospect of a nuclear agreement dims, triggering regional unease and a sharp rise in oil prices.

Embassy Departures Signal Growing Alarm

The U.S. State Department announced the ordered departure of nonessential staff from the embassy in Baghdad, alongside authorized exits from posts in Bahrain and Kuwait. Meanwhile, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth approved voluntary departures for military dependents across the region.

Although U.S. troops remain unaffected, the moves mark a significant precautionary step ahead of a planned sixth round of nuclear negotiations scheduled for this weekend in Oman.

Trump Casts Doubt on Diplomatic Breakthrough

President Donald Trump, in a recent podcast interview, voiced fading confidence in reaching a nuclear deal with Tehran. “I did think so, and I’m getting more and more—less confident about it,” he remarked, casting further uncertainty over ongoing diplomatic efforts.

U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff is still expected to attend the talks in Oman, but officials fear the diplomatic window may be closing.

Iran Issues Dire Warnings, Israel Remains Wary

Iranian Defense Minister Amir Aziz Nasirzadeh warned that U.S. bases in the region would be within striking range should conflict erupt. “If a conflict is imposed on us… we will boldly target them in host countries,” he declared.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has voiced concern over a potential agreement, arguing a flawed deal is worse than none. Trump confirmed he cautioned Netanyahu against actions that could sabotage negotiations.

Markets React as Oil Surges on War Fears

U.S. oil prices jumped 4.9% on Wednesday, driven by fears of a new conflict in the Gulf and lower-than-expected domestic crude inventories. Analysts also cited trader expectations of tightened global supply, with fading hopes for Iranian oil exports due to stalled sanctions relief.

The region has seen increased volatility following Trump’s tariff campaign in April, which initially deflated oil prices. However, with six of the past eight sessions ending in gains, oil is now up 19% from its May low.