The assault began on June 25, when RSF fighters stormed the village of Kazkeel on motorbikes, torching homes and farmland while targeting fleeing civilians. Survivors reported killings of young men, women, and children, with local monitors alleging that RSF fighters shot pregnant women and burned families alive in recent attacks across North Kordofan.

These incidents have pushed thousands into el-Obeid, including 60-year-old Hamisa and her extended family, who now live in makeshift shelters with minimal access to food and medical care. The city, already hosting around 137,000 displaced people, is reportedly at risk of a siege—an outcome that would cripple SAF’s ability to conduct airstrikes in Darfur and hold off RSF advances toward Khartoum.

Strategic Stakes And Humanitarian Collapse

Humanitarian officials and conflict analysts stress the importance of el-Obeid as a military logistics hub. Nathaniel Raymond from Yale’s Humanitarian Research Lab warned that losing the city would severely reduce SAF’s operational capacity and open a path for RSF to expand drone strikes toward the capital.

With Sudan’s delayed rainy season forecast to begin soon, observers note that cloud cover could provide RSF with a tactical advantage while mobility remains possible. Analysts fear this window could trigger a major RSF assault, turning el-Obeid into a battleground at the heart of the civil war.

Inside the city, relief workers say only 5% of displaced people have shelter with a solid roof. Mercy Corps’ North Sudan director Emmanuel Ufot warns of imminent cholera outbreaks and warns that evacuation routes will close if RSF takes the city. Local volunteer Yousef Hederby said that RSF shelling had already killed four and injured 20 in July, with attacks targeting homes, power stations, and hospitals.

“We are all very scared,” said Hamisa, who compared the current war to Sudan’s 1990s civil conflict, stating that this time “there is no safe place in Kordofan.”