Karol Nawrocki, a nationalist conservative historian backed by Donald Trump and Viktor Orbán, has narrowly won Poland’s presidential election, setting the stage for a major power struggle with pro-EU Prime Minister Donald Tusk.

Though largely ceremonial, the Polish presidency holds the critical power to veto legislation. With Nawrocki in office, Tusk’s coalition lacks the parliamentary supermajority needed to override such vetoes, posing a threat to reforms on abortion rights, same-sex civil partnerships, and judiciary independence.

Constitutional expert Konstanty Gebert warned, “He will veto any law the government passes,” predicting a path toward potential early elections before the 2027 deadline.

Nationalist with Global Ties

Nawrocki, 42, is a Catholic conservative, former boxer, and director of the Institute of National Remembrance, where he oversaw removal of Soviet monuments. A staunch opponent of Brussels’ influence, he rejects the EU Green Deal and supports a hardline migration policy. He was endorsed by U.S. President Trump and Hungary’s PM Orbán, and celebrated by the European right.

His victory was built on family-values messaging, strongman imagery, and nationalist rhetoric. “There is no place in Poland for symbols of totalitarianism,” he said, vowing to restore patriotic pride.

Hostile to Tusk, Skeptical on Ukraine’s EU Bid

Though Nawrocki supports continued arms shipments to Ukraine, he is less enthusiastic about hosting refugees or endorsing Kyiv’s EU or NATO bids during wartime. He has clashed with President Zelensky’s diplomatic posture and aligns more closely with U.S. Republicans than the EU mainstream.

Tusk has called Nawrocki a “gangster,” reflecting the depth of hostility between the presidency and government. Their friction could paralyze legislative progress, even as both parties support Ukraine’s defense.

Razor-Thin Win in Divided Poland

Nawrocki’s narrow 50.9% win over liberal Warsaw mayor Rafał Trzaskowski underscores Poland’s deep political divide. Trzaskowski pledged unity, while Nawrocki framed his victory as a triumph for the “patriotic camp.” Analysts warn that prolonged gridlock may empower fringe parties like the far-right Confederation or far-left populists in future elections.