NATO Plans to Combine Drones and AI Against a Possible Russian Incursion

NATO’s top military commander is drafting a strategy to stop a potential Russian incursion on the alliance’s eastern flank and swiftly defeat the attacking forces, combining conventional military power with drones and artificial intelligence.

Gen. Alexus Grynkewich, Supreme Allied Commander Europe, is scheduled to present the document, titled “Theory of Victory,” in Poland on October 12.

The strategy seeks to explain how NATO would respond to an attack on its territory, according to senior officials and diplomats familiar with the work who spoke to Bloomberg.

It also aims to demonstrate what increased defense spending would deliver.

Stopping an Incursion

The proposed response would bring together land forces and capabilities developed under NATO’s Eastern Flank Deterrence Initiative.

These include inexpensive drones, systems requiring few crew members, and AI-supported targeting.

Once allied forces secured room to maneuver, they would move against the enemy’s command-and-control systems. The objective would be a rapid, overwhelming defeat of Russian forces.

The document also sets out a deterrence argument: military preparations should convince a potential attacker that victory is beyond reach.

Colonel Martin O’Donnell, Grynkewich’s spokesman, declined to disclose details of the strategy and described NATO as “purely defensive.”

“The Supreme Allied Commander Europe’s theory of victory is simple: maintain NATO’s advantage,” he said.

Deterrence and Hybrid Threats

The strategy stresses NATO’s defensive purpose and the importance of avoiding unintended provocations.

It also calls for allies to respond collectively to hybrid threats that fall below the threshold of armed conflict.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte recently said there were no signs of Russian preparations for a conventional attack on the alliance.

He nevertheless warned that Europe should prepare for persistent hybrid attacks.

Against that backdrop, the document is intended to reassure the public about NATO’s military readiness.

Public explanations of the alliance’s approach to fighting a war remain unusual, even though its general principles are established.

Spending and Force Commitments

The strategy will show allies how established weapons can operate alongside capabilities that have gained prominence since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the officials and diplomats said.

It is also intended to encourage further investment and stronger preparations.

European allies have sharply increased military spending, but face competing demands for conventional equipment, including tanks, and newer technologies.

Those decisions coincide with U.S. consideration of reductions in the military assets assigned to Europe’s defense.

This summer, Washington circulated a questionnaire asking allies about their defense spending and support for President Donald Trump’s policies.

It also asked whether they could commit additional forces to NATO for Grynkewich’s defense plans.