Madagascar is gripped by political turmoil after elite soldiers from the Capsat unit declared control of the army, defying President Andry Rajoelina, who warned of an “illegal” attempt to seize power. The move followed weeks of anti-government protests over worsening living conditions, corruption, and power shortages that have left dozens dead and prompted international concern.

Military Defection Sparks Power Struggle

The crisis deepened on 12 October when members of the elite Capsat unit—credited with helping Rajoelina rise to power in 2009—announced they were “taking command of the military.” They installed General Demosthene Pikulas as army chief during a televised ceremony attended by Defence Minister Josoa Rakotoarison, who declared he was “giving his blessing” to the new leadership. President Rajoelina denounced the move as an “attempted coup” and said he would address the nation to defend constitutional order. Prime Minister Ruphin Zafisambo urged both sides to “avoid further bloodshed,” acknowledging that “excessive force has been used by security units and protesters alike.”

Protests and Mounting Casualties

The demonstrations began in late September, driven largely by young activists angry over rising prices, corruption, and constant electricity and water shortages. Crowds gathered at Antananarivo’s May 13 Square, clashing with police who fired tear gas and live rounds. Rights groups and UN monitors reported at least 22 deaths and more than 100 injuries, though authorities disputed the figures and blamed “vandals” for looting. Protesters meanwhile vowed to continue until the president resigns and new elections are announced.

Economic and International Fallout

Air France suspended flights to Antananarivo citing worsening security, while several embassies advised citizens to avoid public gatherings. The African Union and United Nations called for calm and renewed dialogue between political and military leaders. Economists warned that the turmoil risks derailing fragile economic recovery and deterring investment. With the army now divided and foreign airlines pulling out, fears are rising of an extended standoff that could paralyze governance and deepen poverty across Madagascar.

What Lies Ahead

Rajoelina’s planned national address is expected to outline emergency measures and reaffirm his control over the armed forces. Yet as rival factions fortify positions and mediation efforts stall, uncertainty grips the nation. Analysts say the crisis marks Madagascar’s most dangerous power struggle since the 2009 upheaval, with institutions weakened and public trust eroded. Whether Rajoelina survives the challenge—or the army fragments further—will shape the island’s stability for years to come.