Israel Exit Polls Point to Deadlock as Netanyahu Falls Short of Majority

Israel's election appeared headed for political deadlock on Tuesday after exit polls showed Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud emerging as the largest party, but neither his governing alliance nor the opposition led by Gadi Eisenkot securing a parliamentary majority.

Projections published after polls closed at 10 p.m. put Netanyahu's bloc at about 50 seats in the 120-member Knesset, compared with 52–53 for Eisenkot's camp. Both were short of the 61 seats required to form a government.

Arab-led parties, meanwhile, were projected to secure a record 17–18 seats, adding another obstacle to coalition negotiations in an election that produced no clear route to power for either side.

The figures remain provisional, with official counting underway and the final balance potentially shifting as ballots are counted.

Likud Leads but Opposition Holds Larger Bloc

Channel 12 projected 24 seats for Netanyahu's Likud, narrowly ahead of Eisenkot's Yashar party on 22.

Naftali Bennett's B'Yachad was forecast to win 12 seats, while Yisrael Beytenu and the Democrats were each projected to take nine.

The survey gave Netanyahu's alliance 50 seats and the Jewish parties opposing him 52, leaving the remaining 18 seats with Arab-led parties.

Channel 13 produced a similar parliamentary balance, although it projected 25 seats for Likud and 23 for Yashar.

Its figures placed the Eisenkot-led bloc on 53 seats, Netanyahu's alliance on 50 and Arab-led parties on 17.

Public broadcaster Kan 11 projected 25 seats for Likud against 21 for Yashar and 14 for B'Yachad, with the rival blocs again receiving 50 and 53 seats respectively and Arab-led parties 17.

i24NEWS gave Likud 27 seats and Yashar 20, putting Netanyahu's coalition bloc on 55, the opposition on 49 and Arab-led parties on 16. Even that projection left the prime minister six seats short of a majority.

Right-leaning Channel 14 was the clear outlier, projecting 30 seats for Likud and 19 for Yashar. Its poll put Netanyahu's bloc on 60 seats, one short of a majority, against 43 for the change bloc and 17 for Arab-led parties.

After polls closed, Likud's "election integrity headquarters" claimed it had received 620 reports of irregularities from polling stations in Arab communities. Ra'am dismissed police action against its activists as "baseless arrests intended to undermine Ra'am and suppress voter turnout."

The Reservists party and People of Israel were projected to fall below the 3.25% threshold required to enter parliament in the Channel 12 and Channel 13 surveys.

Record Arab Representation Complicates Coalition Arithmetic

The projected gains for Arab-led parties could prove decisive in determining whether either political camp can assemble a viable governing majority.

Channel 12 assigned 11 seats to the Joint List and seven to Ra'am, while Channel 13 forecast 10 and seven respectively.

That would leave Arab-led parties holding 17–18 seats, a record according to the exit polls.

Yet the opposition's numerical advantage does not automatically translate into a viable coalition.

Eisenkot has previously rejected governing with Ra'am. In a September interview, he said neither Arab nor ultra-Orthodox parties currently satisfied his coalition conditions, explicitly including Ra'am leader Mansour Abbas.

Abbas, for his part, declared that his party would "bring down Benjamin Netanyahu, Smotrich and Ben Gvir."

The resulting parliamentary arithmetic leaves Eisenkot with a larger projected opposition bloc but no straightforward majority, while Netanyahu faces a similar obstacle despite Likud's first-place finish.

Record Turnout Reshapes the Contest

Voter participation reached 74.3% by 8 p.m., according to Israel's Central Elections Committee, with 5,449,277 ballots cast by that point.

The figure was the highest ever recorded at that hour and exceeded the 70.6% turnout for the entire 2022 election.

High participation among Arab voters became a central issue during the final hours of voting.

Netanyahu warned earlier on Tuesday that Arab turnout threatened "the future of our Jewish state," while accusing his opponents of attempting to steal the election.

His request to extend voting hours was rejected.

National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir described Arab turnout as "crazy," while Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich urged supporters not to abandon hopes of victory.

Eisenkot Claims Rejection of Netanyahu Government

Following the publication of the exit polls, Eisenkot presented the results as a repudiation of Netanyahu's administration.

He said voters had demonstrated "complete no-confidence in Netanyahu and the October 7 government," describing the projected outcome as a victory for the mainstream Zionist majority if confirmed.

"I will act immediately to carry out the will of the people, to replace the Netanyahu government, and to establish a Zionist government of national mobilisation as soon as possible," Eisenkot said.

Opposition leader Yair Lapid said: "Don't let anyone confuse you: The Netanyahu bloc has suffered a crushing defeat. This is a total collapse, and the public has told them to go home."

Democrats leader Yair Golan, the only opposition leader who has not ruled out cooperation with Arab parties, said: "The public has spoken; it has dismissed the Netanyahu government. We have been granted a historic opportunity to form a government of genuine change in Israel, and we have no intention of letting it slip away."

But both camps have grounds to present the preliminary figures as a political success.

Likud is projected to retain its position as the country's largest individual party, while Eisenkot's alliance holds a narrow advantage in the wider bloc comparison.

Neither achievement guarantees control of the next government.

Coalition Talks or Another Election

The first official figures were expected around 1 a.m. local time, with counting potentially extending until Friday because of approximately 600,000 absentee ballots, most of them cast by soldiers.

The final tally is expected by October 30, while the official results are scheduled for publication on November 4.

Once the outcome is established, President Isaac Herzog will consult parliamentary parties before selecting a candidate to attempt to form a government.

The decisive question will be whether either Netanyahu or Eisenkot can secure enough parliamentary support to cross the 61-seat threshold.

A unity government between Netanyahu and Eisenkot appears unlikely, as Eisenkot has rejected serving under Netanyahu, including in a rotation deal. A minority government backed by the Arab parties is possible, but resistance within the opposition to relying on them could block it.

If neither succeeds, Israel could be pushed toward another election, with Netanyahu continuing as caretaker prime minister.

Exit polls have differed from final election results in previous Israeli contests. Until counting is completed, both the projected bloc balance and the prospects for a new government remain uncertain.