Iran Expects No Breakthrough With Washington Before US Midterms

Iranian officials privately doubt that Tehran and Washington can reach a deal to end hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz before the U.S. midterm elections in November.

Talks held around last week’s U.N. General Assembly produced little movement.

Iranian officials also see a strong possibility that the conflict will intensify after the Nov. 3 vote, according to Bloomberg.

Election Deadline

Both sides have questioned whether the other would honor an agreement.

President Donald Trump has said he doubts a deal can be concluded before the elections, while Iranian officials have publicly maintained that Tehran remains open to diplomacy.

The political calendar adds pressure to negotiations over Hormuz.

Higher energy prices since the U.S. and Israel began the war in late February have weighed on Trump and his Republican Party ahead of a vote in which Democrats are widely expected to gain ground.

Brent crude rose about 2.5% this week to $107 a barrel as expectations of an imminent agreement on the strait receded.

Asked about the negotiations on Monday, Trump told reporters: “As far as I’m concerned, it’s going to be one way or the other. It’s going to go pretty quickly.”

Terms Still Apart

Washington wants firm Iranian commitments to reopen Hormuz and concessions on Tehran’s nuclear program, according to people familiar with the talks.

A U.S. official said there would be no pact without progress on nuclear issues, though Trump was prepared to offer sanctions relief and release frozen funds in return for concrete steps.

Iran has proposed reopening the strait within seven days if the U.S. takes certain measures.

Its leaders have previously called for Washington to lift its naval blockade and oil sanctions. Trump said on Saturday that he had rejected Tehran’s proposal.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met Trump’s envoys, Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, last week and stayed in the U.S. for further discussions through mediators.

After an Iranian delegation met a Qatari mediator in New York on Monday, Araghchi said he hoped to receive Washington’s final response by Tuesday.

Pakistan and Qatar have played prominent roles in the intermittent talks.

Mediators are seeking terms different from a June memorandum of understanding that briefly halted fighting and increased traffic through Hormuz before collapsing about two weeks later.

That arrangement drew criticism from U.S. politicians over the scale of financial relief offered to Iran.

Tehran continued to restrict passage through the strait, and shipping volumes remained well below their prewar level.