Iran Changes Hormuz Tactics to Keep Oil Prices High Before US Midterms

Iran has changed its tactics for attacking ships around the Strait of Hormuz to keep oil prices elevated and influence November’s U.S. midterm elections, two senior Iranian officials told Reuters.

The shift involves both the methods and frequency of attacks, alongside plans to extend operations into the Gulf of Oman and more distant waters.

The officials said Iran’s highest leadership had approved the strategy, with coordination across the ruling system.

“The aim is to frustrate efforts by the United States and its allies to bring down global oil prices,” one official said.

One of the officials said the revised tactics had been introduced about 10 days earlier against vessels deemed to have breached Tehran’s transit restrictions.

Neither disclosed the operational details.

Small Boats Replace Lost Radar Coverage

A U.S. military official confirmed a significant change in Iranian surveillance: the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has begun deploying unarmed crews in small boats to locate targets, including American warships, after U.S. strikes destroyed much of Iran’s radar capability.

In an incident last week that had not previously been reported, American forces identified a dhow whose occupants were relaying targeting information to the IRGC, the official said.

U.S. forces ordered those aboard to leave before destroying the vessel. The official reported no casualties.

The same official said Iran’s reluctance to expose its surviving fast boats had limited its ability to stop rising oil exports through Hormuz after American strikes devastated its navy.

Attacks Spread Across Gulf Waters

Independent maritime data indicate that attacks on commercial shipping have reached their highest frequency since the war began.

At least five incidents involving tankers and other merchant vessels were recorded around Hormuz within 48 hours, including drone attacks, according to maritime security sources and reports to the U.K. navy-affiliated United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations agency.

That pace broadly matched the escalation recorded on October 3-5, according to International Maritime Organization data.

Analysis of recent incident reports also suggests operations are spreading beyond the strait. Maritime security sources identified attacks in waters off Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.

The Iranian officials said the planned expansion would put vessels breaching Tehran’s restrictions at risk further afield.

Oil Prices Become an Election Lever

Hormuz carried roughly one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas trade before the war.

Iranian restrictions, threats and attacks have sharply reduced shipping traffic and pushed up oil prices, although some exports continue.

Tehran began seeking control over passage after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28.

Washington has meanwhile maintained a naval blockade of Iranian ports and expanded sanctions to pressure Iran into an agreement ending the conflict.

The war, costing $3 billion a month, has become a campaign issue ahead of elections that will determine control of Congress.

President Donald Trump has said he will hold off on further attacks until after the vote.

One Iranian official described Tehran’s price strategy as deliberate obstruction: “Just when they think they are getting close to the point where prices will fall, we will push them away from it. This is a game of chess.”

Both officials said Iran was working toward preventing any vessel that violated its restrictions from crossing Hormuz.

The U.S. Navy-led Joint Maritime Information Center rated the threat to merchant shipping as severe, its second-highest category, in its Sunday assessment.