Claims of China’s growing influence in the Arctic have been “highly exaggerated,” according to a new study by researchers from Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. The report, Cutting Through Narratives on Chinese Arctic Investments, argues that much of the concern over China’s role in the Arctic is based on speculative fears rather than concrete developments.

“It is apparent that most of this anxiety is about what might be, not what has actually happened,” the researchers state. They highlight that international alarmism over China’s Arctic ambitions relies heavily on inflated figures and speculative projections.

China’s Arctic involvement began gaining attention in 2013 when Beijing was granted observer status at the Arctic Council. In 2018, it announced its Polar Silk Road initiative, promoting itself as a “near-Arctic state” with aims to increase scientific research and access to Arctic resources. However, the Harvard researchers note that only 18 out of 57 Chinese investment projects identified are currently active, and most are in Russia. Only one project is operational in Canada.

Despite estimates that China has invested more than $90 billion in the Arctic since 2003, the researchers say this figure is inflated with failed projects or proposals that never materialized. “Our research finds that these numbers are highly exaggerated and often mobilized to support a narrative in which China is successfully ‘buying up’ the Arctic region,” the study concludes.

In Canada, China’s Arctic footprint is limited to a nickel mine in Nunavik and two stalled mineral projects in the Yukon and Northwest Territories. A notable failure was Canada’s 2020 rejection of a Chinese bid to buy the Hope Bay gold mine on security grounds.

While China has found a more willing partner in Russia, including joint oversight of the Northern Sea Route and joint military exercises, its broader Arctic ambitions have not translated into significant influence among other Arctic states. The researchers caution Arctic nations to weigh potential risks against economic benefits and not let inflated fears dictate policy.