Russia may attempt to probe NATO’s collective defense by deploying covert operatives into alliance territory, German intelligence chief Bruno Kahl warned, citing evidence Moscow sees the Ukraine war as only a first step westward.

Moscow Questions NATO’s Defense Guarantee

In an interview with Table Media, Kahl—head of the Federal Intelligence Service (BND)—said Russian officials are questioning whether NATO would truly respond to limited provocations under Article 5. “We are quite certain, and we have intelligence showing it, that Ukraine is only a step on the journey westward,” he stated.

Kahl emphasized that Russia doesn’t need to roll out tanks to challenge NATO. “It's enough to send little green men to Estonia to protect supposedly oppressed Russian minorities,” he said, referencing the unmarked troops who played a key role in Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014.

Sub-Threshold Warfare Anticipated

Kahl warned that future Russian moves are likely to fall below the threshold of full-scale war, making Western unity and response harder to calibrate. Such actions may include cyberattacks, disinformation, or covert deployments disguised as local unrest.

While he did not identify specific Kremlin figures behind the strategy, he noted consistent signals from intelligence sources suggesting Moscow is preparing to escalate hybrid threats in the Baltics.

Germany’s Military and Diplomatic Response

Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s government has pledged deeper support for Ukraine, including helping develop missile systems capable of striking inside Russia. Merz recently confronted former U.S. President Trump in Washington, countering Trump’s narrative that the war is a “fight between infants.”

Kahl also confirmed that U.S. intelligence shares Berlin’s view of the threat, saying, “They take it as seriously as us, thank God.”