China Unlikely to Invade Taiwan Before 2028: US Officials

U.S. officials increasingly doubt China will invade Taiwan before 2028, citing military readiness setbacks and Beijing’s interest in the island’s next presidential election despite Xi Jinping’s standing order to prepare his forces by 2027.

Two serving U.S. officials, a former official and another person familiar with the assessment, pointed to disruption from China’s military corruption crackdown.

Some Chinese officials also hope Taiwan’s 2028 vote will produce a government more receptive to Beijing’s demands, according to Reuters.

The assessment shifts Washington’s expectations around a benchmark that has shaped years of regional defense planning.

It does not indicate that Xi has withdrawn his military objective.

Readiness, Not an Invasion Deadline

Xi’s instruction concerns the capabilities needed to seize Taiwan by force.

Analysts have consistently distinguished that target from a decision to launch an invasion in 2027, the People’s Liberation Army’s centenary.

Beijing has never publicly acknowledged the readiness order.

It continues to claim Taiwan and has retained the option of using force, while Taiwan rejects that claim and says its future belongs to its people.

The U.S. intelligence community’s annual threat assessment in March said China had no plan at that point to invade in 2027 and preferred to secure control without fighting.

Xi again advocated peaceful cross-strait relations in a speech this week.

Taiwan’s Election Could Change the Calculation

U.S. officials believe the danger could increase from 2028 if Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party secures a fourth successive presidential term, particularly through President Lai Ching-te's reelection.

“If that happens, I think 2028 becomes pretty sporty,” one U.S. official said.

Lai and his party emphasize Taiwan’s distinct identity, drawing repeated objections from Beijing.

Some Chinese officials hope the election will instead deliver leadership more willing to accept closer political alignment with China.

Taiwanese presidential spokesperson Karen Kuo said Lai’s government would strengthen its defenses and cooperate with democratic partners, including the U.S., to preserve peace and the status quo.

Military Purges Disrupt Preparations

Xi’s corruption campaign has removed senior commanders and reduced the previously seven-member Central Military Commission to two active officials, including Xi.

People familiar with the U.S. assessment said the disruption had limited the military’s progress last year.

One official described Chinese exercises in 2025 as smaller and less threatening than in preceding years, with activity recovering somewhat in 2026.

That official said Chinese commanders appeared dissatisfied with their preparedness.

Beijing was also believed to have taken from the wars in Ukraine and Iran the need to achieve rapid results and avoid a prolonged conflict.

“There are way too many pieces that aren't quite in place yet for what would be the most difficult military operation any military has attempted probably since the Allied invasion of Normandy,” the official said.

Washington’s Role Remains Uncertain

Views differ within the U.S. assessment over the importance Beijing attaches to America’s 2028 presidential election.

Three sources said China might await its outcome, partly because of growing American opposition to overseas military intervention.

Another official argued that broad agreement between Democrats and Republicans on Taiwan reduced the election’s significance.

President Donald Trump has said Xi assured him China would not invade during his presidency.

After their meeting in Washington last week, Trump offered little detail on their Taiwan discussions.

Trump has also delayed approval of an approximately $14 billion arms package since visiting Beijing in May, describing it as a “negotiating chip.”