Bolsonaro Leads Lula As Brazil’s Presidential Race Heads to Runoff

Flávio Bolsonaro led President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in Brazil’s presidential election with nearly all ballots counted Sunday, sending the contest to an October 25 runoff.

The 45-year-old senator had 47.3% of the vote against Lula’s 44.8%, with 98% counted late Sunday. Neither secured the majority required to win outright.

Other candidates on the right collected a combined 5%, giving Bolsonaro a potential pool of support for the second round.

The result leaves the 80-year-old incumbent seeking to close the gap in three weeks.

Polls Underestimated Bolsonaro

The first-round tally reversed the order projected by Datafolha on the eve of voting, when the pollster put Lula at 45% and Bolsonaro at 42%.

Conservatives also secured major gains in congressional and state elections.

Their advance reflected support driven by concerns over violent crime, opposition to taxes and public spending, and the expanding political influence of evangelical Christians.

“Brazil has had enough…this is the end of the era of the Workers’ Party,” Bolsonaro told supporters.

Lula described the outcome as a “lesson in democracy” and pledged to fight for victory in the runoff.

Bolsonaro Family Expands Its Reach

Flávio is the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year sentence at home for attempting to overturn the 2022 election.

The former president denies having plotted a coup and is barred from seeking office.

The family secured several other electoral victories Sunday. Jair Bolsonaro’s wife, Michelle, and son Carlos won Senate seats, while his youngest son, Jair Renan, and brother Renato were elected to the lower house.

Sergio Moro, the former judge whose handling of Lula’s corruption cases was later found to have been biased, won a governorship.

Lula’s convictions were annulled after the Supreme Court ruled that the court which heard his cases lacked jurisdiction.

He subsequently defeated Jair Bolsonaro and returned to the presidency in 2023.

Trump Becomes a Campaign Flashpoint

The runoff follows a campaign dominated by personal accusations and a banking scandal involving figures across the political spectrum.

Neither presidential contender attended the televised debates.

Lula’s camp has accused the Trump administration of assisting Brazil’s right, citing U.S. tariffs and attempts to send officials to discuss electoral integrity.

Washington suspended consular services across Brazil on Friday, citing security concerns.

Trump has issued no formal endorsement in this election, although he previously supported Jair Bolsonaro and recently hosted Flávio at the White House.

Spending and Security Divide the Candidates

Lula is offering higher welfare payments and additional household debt relief. Bolsonaro proposes eliminating at least 10 ministries and introducing a new spending ceiling.

On security, Bolsonaro wants to classify major drug gangs as narcoterrorist organizations, reduce the age of criminal responsibility from 18 to 16, and construct five maximum-security prisons modeled on El Salvador’s approach.

Voter disengagement presents another challenge for Lula. A recent Quaest survey found that 23% expressed no interest in the election, while 10% intended to abstain or submit blank or invalid ballots.

Disengagement is especially pronounced among poorer women, an important part of Lula’s electorate.

In 2022, 29% of women in that income group stayed home or cast blank or invalid votes.