Efforts to secure a Gaza ceasefire entered a decisive phase this week, as secret White House talks involving senior U.S., Israeli, and Qatari officials produced tangible progress—but not yet a final deal. While U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu held two meetings in 48 hours, and Trump declared an agreement “very close,” a senior Israeli official tempered expectations, saying a deal could come “in one or two weeks, but not in a day.”

Ceasefire Deal Hinges on IDF Withdrawal

The latest round of indirect negotiations has centered on a central point of friction: the extent of the Israel Defense Forces’ (IDF) withdrawal from Gaza during the proposed 60-day truce. Sources told Axios that a previously undisclosed White House meeting on Tuesday, led by Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff, focused on this issue. A map initially presented by Israel was rejected by both the U.S. and Qatar for being too narrow in scope and resembling what one U.S. official called a “Smotrich plan”—a reference to Israeli far-right minister Bezalel Smotrich’s calls for long-term occupation.

Following strong objections from both Witkoff and Qatari representatives, Israel submitted a revised redeployment map, which sources said led to “significant progress” in the talks.

Hostage Deal and Military Stakes

The deal under discussion includes the release of 10 living Israeli hostages and the remains of 18 more. Hamas, in a public statement, said it is still committed to negotiations but insists on three conditions: an end to the Israeli occupation, the uninterrupted flow of humanitarian aid, and guarantees for a permanent ceasefire.

An Israeli official briefing reporters in Washington said Israel will use the temporary truce to push for a broader agreement that would require Hamas to disarm. If Hamas refuses, “we’ll proceed” with military operations, the official warned.

Strategic Timing and Diplomatic Leverage

The push for a ceasefire follows recent joint U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites, which Trump claimed had “obliterated” three facilities. Netanyahu thanked Trump for his support and reportedly views the weakened position of Iran—a key backer of Hamas—as an opportunity to strike a deal.

Despite mounting pressure, Netanyahu emphasized he faces coalition constraints and cannot make concessions unilaterally. He denied being pressured by Washington, asserting that Israel and the U.S. are aligned in their goals.

Trump suggested that a deal could still be reached before Netanyahu departs Washington on Thursday, but officials now believe that next week is a more realistic timeline. One source described the talks as on a “positive trajectory,” though gaps remain.

The outcome could hinge on how far Israel is willing to go in scaling back its military footprint in Gaza—and whether Hamas accepts the proposed terms under Qatari mediation.