Arab Turnout Could Tip Israeli Election Against Netanyahu

Israel’s Arab voters could determine whether Benjamin Netanyahu loses power in next week’s election, as community leaders mobilize against the most right-wing government in the country’s history.

Higher participation among the Arab minority, which accounts for 21% of the population, could strengthen parties that can help Netanyahu’s opponents assemble a parliamentary majority.

However, Gadi Eisenkot, the former military chief leading the rival bloc, has rejected a governing alliance with them.

The contest turns partly on whether that refusal survives the result, and whether Arab parties can translate additional votes into influence over the next government.

A Majority Beyond Reach

Current polls put Eisenkot’s alliance of centrist, right-wing and left-wing parties on 52 seats in the 120-member Knesset, against 50 for Netanyahu’s religious-nationalist camp.

The United Arab List, led by Mansour Abbas, is projected to secure five seats. The Joint List, an alliance of three Arab parties, is forecast to take eight.

Those projections leave Eisenkot dependent on additional support to govern, potentially through Arab participation in a coalition or backing for a minority administration.

“We can ensure the formation of a new government of change,” Abbas told Reuters in Nazareth.

His stated objectives include ending the wars, halting settlement expansion, tackling settler violence and improving security for Palestinians and Israelis.

Eisenkot has maintained his opposition to cooperation, pointing in part to Arab parties’ refusal to designate Hamas a terrorist organization.

“I will not align myself with any Arab party,” he said in a podcast this month.

Failure to establish a government could trigger another election in 2027, leaving Netanyahu in office during the intervening deadlock.

Mobilizing Arab Voters

The Stat-Net Research Institute forecasts Arab turnout of 63%, up from 56% in 2022. Palestinian Israelis hold Israeli citizenship and are Palestinian by heritage.

Campaign organizers are drawing on anger over Netanyahu’s government and worsening crime in Arab communities.

Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich has proposed expanding Jewish settlement around Nazareth and in southern areas with large Arab populations, drawing a comparison with settlement expansion in the occupied West Bank.

The election is Israel’s first since the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack and places Netanyahu’s leadership at the center of the campaign.

His campaign has circulated manipulated images and AI-generated videos portraying opponents alongside Arab leaders. One fabricated video depicted Eisenkot running toward Abbas for an embrace.

Support From Outside

Abbas is seeking to keep open a route into government.

His party joined the coalition led by Naftali Bennett in 2021, an arrangement that lasted 18 months before collapsing partly over disputes concerning the occupied West Bank.

Bennett now belongs to Eisenkot’s bloc. Abbas says their differences can be overcome and has placed Jewish former police official Yoav Segalovitz second on his party’s electoral slate.

The Joint List is pursuing another route: supporting a government while remaining outside it.

Ahmad Tibi, one of its leaders, said the alliance could back an Eisenkot administration on establishing an official inquiry into October 7.

“We are placing as our top priority getting rid of the extreme right-wing government of Netanyahu, Smotrich and Ben-Gvir,” Tibi said.