Allies Fear a Republican Loss Could Trigger Trump to Cut NATO Funding

NATO allies fear a Republican defeat in Tuesday’s U.S. midterm elections could drive President Donald Trump to withdraw thousands more troops from Europe and reduce American funding for the alliance.

Five NATO diplomats told POLITICO that electoral losses could intensify Trump’s pressure on the alliance.

They worry that congressional constraints at home would encourage him to pursue foreign policy initiatives, where he has greater freedom to act.

Three of the diplomats warned that an expanded military withdrawal could follow.

A review of U.S. forces stationed in Europe, expected by December, is emerging as a central concern.

Troop Review Raises Stakes

A Republican setback could give Trump an incentive to broaden the planned drawdown to appeal to his MAGA supporters, the three diplomats said.

The concerns extend beyond troop numbers.

Diplomats said Trump could reduce Washington’s payments into NATO’s common budgets, restrict the alliance-backed PURL program for purchasing weapons for Ukraine and pursue closer relations with Russia.

Oana Lungescu, a former NATO official now at the Royal United Services Institute, said continued U.S. deployments could become leverage to secure European acceptance of an American-backed settlement in Ukraine.

“There is a risk that all these things, the U.S. force posture review, Ukraine, European security order … somehow are treated as part of a much bigger deal with Putin,” she told POLITICO.

The warnings come amid strains over Washington’s cutoff of Starlink services for Ukraine and renewed engagement between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

White House Defends NATO Record

The White House pointed to allied commitments to spend 5% of GDP on defense by 2035, an expanded U.S. military presence in Greenland and Trump’s efforts to end the Ukraine war.

“President Trump has done more for NATO than anyone else,” assistant press secretary Olivia Wales told POLITICO.

Wales also said Trump “remains firm that our NATO allies should have been there for the United States” over the war in Iran.

Democrats are expected to capture the House of Representatives and could also take the Senate, according to the report.

Such an outcome would increase congressional scrutiny of the administration’s defense policy.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth could face investigations into the dismissal of dozens of senior military officers and the conduct of the Iran war.

His strained relations with lawmakers have fueled speculation that a heavy Republican defeat could lead to his departure.

A leadership transition at the Pentagon could delay decisions on European deployments by weeks or months.

Congressional Limits Face Questions

U.S. law sets a floor of 76,000 troops in Europe. Whether that restriction would prevent a broader withdrawal remains disputed.

Jennifer Kavanagh, a senior fellow at Defense Priorities, questioned whether troop minimums would withstand legal challenges and said the administration had already disregarded congressional spending instructions.

Europe would struggle most to replace American electronic warfare, air defense, intelligence and reconnaissance capabilities, alongside aerial refueling and some logistics support, she said.

Other allies expressed less concern.

Montenegrin Defense Minister Dragan Krapović pointed to previous predictions of a U.S. exit from NATO that had not materialized and emphasized Congress’s role in decisions on troop reductions.