AfD's Historic Win Puts Merz Under Pressure and Europe on Alert

The Alternative for Germany’s historic victory in Saxony-Anhalt has pushed Friedrich Merz into one of the most serious political tests of his chancellorship, challenging Germany’s long-standing strategy for containing the far right and raising wider concerns across Europe.

The AfD secured nearly 44% of the vote and 39 of the state legislature’s 83 seats. It fell short of an outright majority, but its first-place finish has brought the party closer than ever to taking power at state level in postwar Germany.

Merz ruled out cooperation with the AfD on Monday. But the scale of the defeat left little room to understate the damage to his Christian Democrats.

“This shakes our party to its very foundations,” Merz said, according to Bild.

He later described the result as the CDU’s worst election performance in decades.

The Firewall Comes Under Pressure

The immediate question is whether Germany’s political “firewall” against the AfD can withstand the result.

Mainstream parties, including the CDU, have long rejected cooperation with the party.

The AfD argues that the policy is undemocratic and is now seeking to exploit its election victory by appealing directly to conservative lawmakers.

AfD national co-leader Tino Chrupalla called on CDU representatives to support what he described as a “center-right conservative majority” in Saxony-Anhalt.

The numbers leave the AfD without enough seats to govern alone. Its route to power would therefore depend on attracting support from outside its parliamentary group.

The populist left-wing BSW is the only German party that has indicated a willingness to work with the AfD.

The two parties differ sharply in their broader political identities but overlap on several major issues. Both oppose mass immigration, want Germany to end its support for Ukraine and advocate restoring relations with Moscow.

A Warning for Merz

For Merz, the result is not confined to one relatively small eastern state.

His approval ratings have fallen to record lows, while further state elections are due in the coming weeks and next year.

Saxony-Anhalt has therefore become an early measure of whether dissatisfaction with his governing coalition can translate into sustained AfD gains.

Merz rejected suggestions that he should resign.

“Giving up is not an option for me,” he said.

He acknowledged that his party needed to reconnect more effectively with voters but indicated that his government would largely maintain its reform agenda.

Merz is relying on reforms and increased spending in some areas to revive growth in Europe’s largest economy.

The election result, however, demonstrated the scale of the political challenge confronting that strategy.

Foreign Policy Becomes a Domestic Faultline

Ukraine and relations with Russia have become central to the divide.

The AfD wants Germany to halt support for Kyiv and rebuild ties with Moscow. BSW takes a similar position, with both parties arguing that sanctions on Russia have damaged German economic interests.

“Peace in Europe” was the second-largest factor influencing voters in Saxony-Anhalt, according to figures from broadcaster ARD.

Merz made clear that the result would not alter his position.

“I will not deviate by even a millimeter from my fundamental conviction that we must defend our freedom, especially now, against Russia,” he said.

He also defended last year’s decision to borrow hundreds of billions of euros for defense spending, framing the political moment as a broader struggle over Western values and NATO unity.

The chancellor argued that withdrawing support from Ukraine would worsen rather than resolve the conflict and accused Russia’s leadership of seeking to destabilize the values underpinning the West.

AfD Looks Beyond Saxony-Anhalt

For the AfD, Saxony-Anhalt is more than a regional breakthrough.

Alice Weidel, the party’s other national co-leader, called the result a milestone and said the AfD would target at least 40% in Germany’s next national election, scheduled for 2029.

The party’s support in Saxony-Anhalt was particularly strong among men. Some 50% of male voters backed the AfD, compared with 39% of women.

Its voters also tended to be less economically secure and less educated.

During the campaign, the AfD sought to capitalize on frustration with established parties, portraying them as exhausted and disconnected from voters.

Its platform combined tougher immigration policies with pledges for safer streets and a renewed emphasis on national identity.

For some voters, nostalgia for life in the former communist East Germany also played a role.

Europe Takes Notice

The consequences extend beyond Germany.

France and Poland were among the neighboring countries where the result prompted concern, while far-right parties elsewhere in Europe welcomed the AfD’s performance.

French Finance Minister Roland Lescure described the outcome as a “very, very worrying signal.”

“This shows that we face a major challenge in the face of a populist wave which is spreading around the world today and which we must resist,” he said.

The reaction is sharpened by France’s own national election next year, where Marine Le Pen could become president.

The AfD has been classified as right-wing extremist by the local office of Germany’s domestic intelligence service.

The party rejects the designation and says accusations of extremism are intended to discredit its supporters.

Saxony-Anhalt does not by itself determine Germany’s national political direction. But the result has changed the scale of the argument.

For Merz, it exposes the fragility of the CDU’s position and forces renewed scrutiny of the firewall against the AfD.

For the AfD, it provides evidence that a path from opposition to government may no longer be purely theoretical.

For the rest of Europe, the result places Germany more firmly inside a political shift already reshaping several of the continent’s democracies.