Afghanistan and Pakistan have resumed full diplomatic ties after a landmark meeting in Beijing, with China steering the deal that could reshape the region’s economic and security landscape and position Beijing as its dominant power broker.

The agreement, forged in May under Chinese mediation, marks a significant thaw in relations strained by years of deadly border violence and cross-border insurgencies. Amid rising tensions with India, Pakistan accelerated efforts to resolve its western frontier disputes.

Officials from both nations confirmed that the agreement includes Kabul’s commitment to rein in the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which Islamabad accuses of staging attacks from Afghan territory. Taliban officials denied backing the group but reaffirmed that “Afghan soil will not be used against Pakistan or any other country.”

CPEC Expansion: Strategic and Economic Windfall for China

The deal opens the door for Afghanistan to formally join the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a flagship project under China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Chinese officials see the expansion of CPEC through Afghanistan as a way to stabilize western Pakistan, shield its infrastructure investments from militant attacks, and enhance Beijing’s trade access to Central Asia and Europe.

However, security remains a concern. Over 20 Chinese nationals have been killed in Pakistan since 2021, and Beijing has demanded stronger protection for its assets and personnel.

Taliban Eyes Jobs, China Seeks Leverage

Afghanistan, reeling from sanctions and a collapsing economy, hopes Chinese infrastructure investments will bring much-needed employment. Taliban officials reportedly anticipate thousands of new jobs from rail, road, and industrial park construction. But concerns linger over whether hard-liners in Kandahar will resist foreign influence or cooperation with Beijing.

“China cannot send its own troops,” said Fudan University’s Lin Minwang. “All it can do is help the Taliban government so they will help China crack down on terrorist forces that target Xinjiang.”

Strategic Shifts in a Multipolar Region

China’s quiet diplomacy in the region underscores its ambition to fill the vacuum left by the United States. Islamabad, eager to de-escalate two-front tensions with India and the TTP, has seized Beijing’s proposal as a stabilizing opportunity.

But Afghan-Pakistani distrust persists, particularly over Pakistan’s past manipulation of Taliban factions. “Things have to go through Pakistan,” a Pakistani official confirmed, suggesting Islamabad intends to maintain its gatekeeping role in the region’s trade and diplomacy.