US Intel: Iran Regime Not at Risk Despite Strikes

U.S. intelligence indicates that Iran’s clerical leadership continues to hold power and is not at risk of collapse after nearly two weeks of U.S. and Israeli military operations, according to three sources cited by Reuters.

A “multitude” of intelligence reports reportedly provide consistent analysis that the Iranian regime “retains control of the public” and maintains authority across the country. The latest reports were compiled within the past few days.

The strikes, which targeted air defenses, nuclear sites, and senior officials, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, have killed dozens of high-ranking commanders and IRGC leaders.

Despite these losses, U.S. intelligence indicates that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and interim leaders appointed after Khamenei’s death retain control of Iran. The Assembly of Experts recently named Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba, as the new supreme leader.

President Donald Trump has suggested the U.S. military operation could end “soon,” but officials have noted that removing Iran’s leadership was not the stated goal of the campaign.

A U.S. source told Reuters that a ground offensive allowing safe street protests inside Iran would likely be necessary to topple the government, a step not currently planned.

U.S. intelligence also assessed that Iranian Kurdish militias, based in neighboring Iraq, do not have sufficient firepower or numbers to sustain attacks against Iranian security forces, despite organizing and preparing to fight if given support.

Abdullah Mohtadi, head of the Komala Party of Iranian Kurdistan, told Reuters that tens of thousands of young fighters are ready to take up arms if the U.S. provides weapons and armored vehicles. However, President Trump has ruled out deploying Kurdish forces into Iran.

Sources emphasized that the dynamics inside Iran could shift, and the intelligence assessments reflect the current situation rather than future developments.

The Office of the Director of National Intelligence and the Central Intelligence Agency declined to comment, and the White House did not immediately respond to requests for comment.