Lebanon's 10 Day Ceasefire Begins But Israel Can Strike at Will

A 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon has begun, opening a narrow diplomatic window as the United States signals renewed momentum toward a broader deal with Iran.

The truce took effect at midnight, allowing negotiations between Israeli and Lebanese officials, the U.S. State Department said. President Donald Trump framed the move as part of a wider diplomatic push, stating talks with Tehran could resume as early as this weekend in Islamabad and that a deal is “very close.”

On the ground, tens of thousands of displaced Lebanese began returning at dawn, with heavy traffic reported on routes linking Beirut to Sidon and Tyre. The ceasefire follows weeks of fighting, creating a temporary pause intended to stabilize conditions for talks.

Analysts in Iran described the ceasefire as removing a key obstacle to broader negotiations. Researcher and writer at the journal of the Center for Strategic Studies in Tehran Al Akbar Dareini said the conflict operates under a “unity of fronts,” arguing that “either there is security for all or none.”

He added that Iran’s position has shifted due to its control over the Strait of Hormuz, while accusing Washington of having “stabbed Iran in the back” during earlier negotiations.

The ceasefire framework reflects familiar structural tensions. The U.S. State Department said Israel “shall preserve its right to take all necessary measures in self-defense,” while Lebanon is expected to curb attacks by Hezbollah and other groups.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed Israeli forces would remain in a “ten-kilometer-wide zone” stretching “from the sea to Mount Dov… to the Syrian border.” Channel 12 reported the arrangement mirrors the November 2024 model, effectively allowing continued Israeli operations under certain conditions.

The timing of the ceasefire announcement also revealed internal coordination challenges. Journalist Barak Ravid said Israeli ministers learned of the truce “before any real discussion had begun” during a security cabinet call convened by Netanyahu.

Trump expressed confidence that Hezbollah would adhere to the ceasefire, stating, “I think Hezbollah will stick to the ceasefire.”

Yet the structure of the agreement, combined with continued military prerogatives, suggests enforcement will depend on evolving conditions on the ground.