Iran Prioritises Missile Repairs Over Nuclear Sites After 2025 Strikes

According to The New York Times analysis, repair work began shortly after last year’s strikes at more than a dozen Iranian ballistic missile facilities, including production and testing sites. Experts tracking Iran’s weapons programs said the pace of reconstruction suggests Tehran is focused on restoring its missile arsenal as quickly as possible.

Satellite images indicate that some facilities returned to activity within months. At the Shahroud missile test complex, believed to be Iran’s largest and newest solid-fuel missile production site, roads were quickly cleared after snowfall and heat signatures suggested renewed operations.

Analysts cited by the newspaper said intelligence assessments indicate Iran has largely rebuilt its ballistic missile program since the June 2025 attacks.

Deterrence Through Missiles

Experts told The New York Times that Iran’s emphasis on missiles reflects its limited options for deterring further strikes. Ballistic missiles remain Tehran’s most immediate means of threatening Israel and US military assets across the region.

John P. Caves III, a consultant with the US National Defense University’s Center for the Study of Weapons of Mass Destruction, said missile capabilities are central to Iran’s deterrence strategy as long as its nuclear infrastructure remains damaged.

Slow and Limited Nuclear Reconstruction

By contrast, imagery of Iran’s key nuclear facilities — Isfahan, Natanz and Fordo — shows only partial repairs and fortification efforts. Experts cited by The New York Times said most of the visible work initially focused on damage assessment, debris removal and stabilisation rather than full reconstruction.

Western and Israeli officials have found little evidence that Iran has significantly restored its uranium enrichment capacity or taken clear steps toward rebuilding a nuclear warhead capability.

Although new roofing structures have appeared at some sites since December, analysts caution that satellite imagery cannot confirm activity underground. Much of the aboveground damage from the June strikes remains visible.

Signs of Defensive Measures and Concealment

At Natanz, Iran’s main uranium enrichment complex south of Tehran, damaged structures have been covered with roofing, obscuring views of the interior. At Isfahan, destroyed buildings linked to uranium conversion have also been roofed over.

Nearby, new barriers and reinforced tunnel entrances have been observed at underground sites, including a mountain tunnel complex near Isfahan and a newer facility close to Natanz known as Pickaxe Mountain. Experts told The New York Times that these measures may be aimed at protecting sensitive assets or concealing activity from aerial observation.

The Institute for Science and International Security reported a recent uptick in activity at Isfahan, including the burial of tunnel entrances with fresh soil, which analysts said could indicate preparations against possible future strikes.

Concerns Over Enriched Uranium Stockpiles

While large-scale nuclear rebuilding has not been observed, experts warned that Iran still possesses a stockpile of enriched uranium. US and Israeli intelligence assessments suggest that material buried at the sites struck last year remains in place.

David Albright, president of the Institute for Science and International Security, told The New York Times that recent activity increases suspicion that Iran may be seeking to preserve the option of reconstituting a nuclear weapons program, though he stressed that there is no indication of an imminent breakthrough.

Activity at Parchin Raises Questions

Satellite imagery also shows new construction at the Parchin military complex southeast of Tehran, a site associated with past high-explosive testing relevant to nuclear weapons development. A large cylindrical chamber, roughly 150 feet long, appears to have been built in recent months.

Although Parchin was not struck in the June 2025 attacks, it was targeted by Israel in 2024 and has since been reinforced with air defence systems. Analysts cited by The New York Times said the purpose of the new structure remains unclear but underlines the site’s continued strategic importance.