Iran Earns Oil Windfall as US Turns Blind Eye to Exports

Iran has significantly increased oil exports amid rising prices triggered by regional conflict. Analysts estimate that Tehran is earning more than $140 million daily, with shipments continuing despite US sanctions.

Satellite tracking shows at least 13 supertankers have loaded crude from Kharg Island, Iran’s main export terminal, since US and Israeli strikes began. Approximately 24 million barrels of Iranian oil have passed through the Strait of Hormuz during this period.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Washington is deliberately allowing Iranian oil shipments to proceed to avoid destabilizing global supply.

“The Iranian ships have been getting out already and we have let that happen to supply the rest of the world,” he said.

The US has also eased restrictions on Russian oil, aiming to calm markets as energy prices remain politically sensitive ahead of domestic elections.

Iran has effectively restricted access through the Strait of Hormuz by targeting tankers, disrupting one of the world’s most critical energy routes, through which around 20% of global oil and LNG normally flows.

The disruption has driven oil prices above $100 per barrel, while other Middle Eastern producers have reduced output due to export and storage constraints.

Much of Iran’s oil is transported via a “shadow fleet” of tankers designed to evade sanctions. Analysts say more than 90% of Iranian exports go to China, often to independent refineries attracted by discounted crude.

Despite risks, shipments have remained steady, with energy firms noting that these operations are designed to withstand geopolitical pressure.

Pressure is mounting in Washington to tighten restrictions on Iran’s oil revenues. Some policymakers argue that limiting exports could weaken Tehran’s position in the ongoing conflict.

However, experts warn that further escalation could disrupt global markets. Analysts suggest that any move to restrict Iranian exports would require careful calibration to avoid sharp price spikes.

The US has targeted military infrastructure on Kharg Island but avoided damaging oil facilities. Some policymakers have proposed more aggressive options, including seizing the island, though experts warn such a move would carry significant military risks.

Meanwhile, Iran continues to leverage its position in global energy flows, highlighting the broader economic stakes of the conflict.