The Alaska LNG project envisions piping gas from fields north of the Arctic Circle to Nikiski in the south, where it would be liquefied and shipped to Asia. With an estimated cost of $60 billion, the project has struggled for momentum since energy giants ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips withdrew in 2016. Trump reignited the plan by announcing a supposed “joint venture” with Japan in a trade deal, and similarly pressured South Korea. But Tokyo clarified it had only agreed to "examine" the idea, while Seoul confirmed no specific pledge had been made for Alaska LNG.

Ryosuke Tsugaru of Japan’s JERA said the concept made logistical sense—cutting transit to Japan from 35 to 8 days—but warned that his company lacked the detailed information needed to sign long-term contracts. South Korean officials, speaking anonymously, described the project’s pipeline segment as economically unviable and rejected Trump’s suggestion of coercion, despite U.S. tariffs being a factor in negotiations.

Mounting Costs And Political Risks Undermine Prospects

The Alaska LNG proposal includes multiple phases: an 800-mile pipeline, a gas treatment facility, and an LNG export terminal. According to Rapidan Energy Group, the second phase alone could cost $60 billion, nearly double the original estimate. Environmental concerns and legal risks further complicate the outlook. Rapidan analysts warned the project is being used to serve Trump’s political aims under his “energy dominance” agenda and as leverage in trade diplomacy.

While Taiwan’s CPC and Thailand’s PTT signed non-binding letters of intent for limited volumes, major buyers like Japan and South Korea remain unconvinced. Glenfarne Group, the project’s lead developer, has not updated its cost estimates and faces skepticism from analysts who doubt it will reach a final investment decision. Trump’s vision to counter Russia and China in the Arctic via energy infrastructure remains far from realization, with only limited regional buy-in.