Russia has seized one of Ukraine’s most promising lithium deposits in a strategic blow to Kyiv’s economic partnership with the United States. The Shevchenko field, located in the western Donetsk region, fell into Russian hands during the latest phase of Moscow’s summer offensive. The field spans just 100 acres, but its high-grade spodumene ore had made it a cornerstone of Ukraine’s ambitions to become a major supplier of lithium to the West.

Battlefield maps and geolocated combat footage from independent monitoring groups confirm the field’s capture, highlighting the growing threat Russia poses not just to Ukraine’s territorial integrity, but to its economic sovereignty. Analysts now fear that the U.S.-Ukraine minerals deal, signed earlier this year, may falter as the Kremlin seizes more land and with it, Ukraine’s strategic subsoil assets.

Washington’s Lithium Hopes Undermined

Lithium is critical to U.S. strategic industries, particularly for electric vehicle batteries, renewable energy storage systems, and advanced military technologies. As the Biden administration aims to cut dependency on Chinese mineral supply chains, Ukraine emerged as a key alternative. The bilateral minerals agreement granted the U.S. priority investment rights in Ukrainian mining projects and was framed as a pathway to long-term cooperation.

Yet, the capture of the Shevchenko site underscores a flaw in the deal: Ukraine’s ability to offer resources depends on its ability to hold territory. “If Russian troops go further, capture more and more territory, they will control more and more mineral deposits,” said Mykhailo Zhernov, director of Critical Metals Corp, a U.S. firm previously licensed to exploit Shevchenko.

Ukraine Shifts Focus to Dobra Field

In a bid to reassure investors and the Trump administration, Kyiv is accelerating plans to open the Dobra lithium field in central Ukraine—still far from current front lines. Economy Minister Yuliia Svyrydenko announced that initial steps toward private investment had been approved. Critical Metals Corp remains interested in participating, despite the loss of its original site.

Still, experts warn that bureaucratic hurdles, outdated geological surveys, and war-related uncertainty continue to cloud Ukraine’s mineral sector. While Dobra is a promising site, Shevchenko’s high lithium concentration made it unique among Ukraine’s reserves.

Kremlin’s Economic Strategy: Plunder and Control

The seizure fits into a broader pattern of Russian wartime plunder. Since 2022, Russia has commandeered Ukrainian grain, coal, and steel assets. It already controls roughly one-fifth of Ukrainian territory, encompassing several titanium, manganese, and uranium deposits. The Kremlin has now turned its attention to lithium.

Vladimir Ezhikov, a senior Moscow-appointed official in Donetsk, told Russian media last year that Rosatom—the state nuclear conglomerate—had expressed interest in Shevchenko. “This deposit will definitely find a license holder,” he said. “There will definitely be investment and lithium mining.”

The move suggests Russia may aim to create its own lithium supply base in occupied Ukraine, challenging Western efforts to secure critical minerals independently of Beijing and Moscow.

Deal Faces Geopolitical and Tactical Headwinds

Negotiations over the minerals pact initially included Ukrainian requests for expanded U.S. military aid to defend resource zones. However, Washington declined to tie the economic deal to security guarantees, leaving Ukraine to protect strategic assets with dwindling resources.

The situation raises questions about the long-term viability of the partnership. With Russia edging closer to more undeveloped mineral-rich zones, the fear is that continued battlefield losses will strip Ukraine of the very leverage the minerals deal was meant to provide.

For now, Ukraine holds two more significant lithium fields beyond Russia’s reach, but the future of its mineral diplomacy hinges on whether it can prevent further territorial losses—and whether the U.S. will deepen its commitment beyond economics.