Poland has sharpened its warning to Russia, vowing to shoot down aircraft or drones violating its airspace after a string of incidents across the Baltic. Prime Minister Donald Tusk stressed Warsaw will act decisively while exercising caution in ambiguous cases, as NATO allies convened in Brussels and New York to weigh the risks of escalation.

Tusk’s Clarification on Rules of Engagement

Prime Minister Tusk emphasized that Warsaw would only strike at aerial objects that “clearly violate” Polish airspace and threaten national security. He added that Poland would exercise restraint near border zones or safety areas to avoid unintended escalation. His remarks came amid mounting pressure for NATO to present a united stance against Moscow’s provocations.

Drone Incursions and Misfired Missile

The immediate trigger for Poland’s warning was a major drone episode on 9–10 September, when more than 20 Russian drones crossed into Polish territory. At least four were shot down, but defense officials later acknowledged that a missile fired by a Polish F-16 likely caused damage to a house in Wyryki-Wola after malfunctioning. The revelation has sparked domestic criticism and demands for greater transparency.

Estonia’s Claim and Russia’s Denial

On 19 September, Estonia accused three Russian MiG-31 fighter jets of entering its airspace for about 12 minutes over the Gulf of Finland. Tallinn said the breach was unprecedented in scale and part of a broader campaign to test NATO defenses. Moscow flatly denied the charge, calling it false and provocative.

NATO and UN Response

The UN Security Council convened an emergency session where Poland and Estonia presented radar and photographic evidence of violations. Western officials, including the UK foreign secretary, warned that Russia’s actions risk “direct confrontation” with NATO. Allies underlined that any infringement on a member’s sovereignty would be met with collective response.