Europe is actively exploring a European-controlled nuclear deterrent, led by France and potentially the UK, in response to reduced trust in U.S. commitment to NATO under President Donald Trump’s second term. French President Emmanuel Macron has launched strategic discussions and proposed deploying nuclear-capable Rafale jets to Germany, expanding deterrence coverage beyond French borders.

Growing Interest Among Allies

Leaders in Germany, Poland, and Denmark have shown interest in France’s nuclear initiative. German Chancellor-designate Friedrich Merz has called for nuclear talks, and Poland has indicated openness to cooperating with France. However, sharing nuclear control—a symbol of national sovereignty—poses deep political challenges.

UK’s Role Complicated by Setbacks

While the UK holds ~250 warheads, its reliance on U.S. technology and recent Trident test failures cast doubt on its capacity to lead or co-lead a European nuclear force. Its dependence on American systems makes full integration into a European-only shield difficult.

Challenges: Sovereignty, Integration, and Treaties

Legal and Political Barriers

The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) forbids the transfer of nuclear control to non-nuclear states. Any European shield must therefore maintain French control, complicating shared decision-making. Domestic politics, especially in Germany, further complicate adoption due to anti-nuclear sentiment and coalition constraints.

Technical and Financial Hurdles

Creating a credible shield involves complex system integration and command coordination. To help offset the burden, French Senator Cédric Perrin has suggested co-funding France’s $6.6B annual nuclear program, though this raises questions of authority and control.

What Lies Ahead

Europe's nuclear future now hangs between pragmatic defense planning and treaty-bound constraints. As EU defense spending rises and confidence in U.S. reliability wanes, the push for a European nuclear pillar continues—but whether it becomes reality depends on resolving deep-rooted technical, legal, and political divides.

Background Section – Why Now?

Trump’s rhetoric—urging Russia to target underfunded NATO members and casting doubt on Article 5 guarantees—has forced Europe to reconsider its post–Cold War dependency on Washington. With Macron positioning France as a continental guarantor, Europe is taking first steps toward strategic autonomy—steps long resisted, now seen as necessary.