China’s exports jumped 5.8% in June, surpassing expectations as Chinese firms accelerated shipments to the U.S. ahead of an August deadline for a more definitive trade agreement. The export surge reflects Beijing’s reliance on trade to boost its economy amid weak domestic demand and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. Analysts warn, however, that further U.S. tariff measures could disrupt this momentum later in 2025.

Trade Data Signals Resilient Manufacturing

China’s latest trade figures show exports outperforming analyst expectations, with growth outpacing the 4.8% recorded in May and surpassing the 5% forecast in a Reuters pollChina’s exports jump in…. Imports also edged up 1.1% year-on-year, reversing months of decline and marking the first expansion since December.

President Xi Jinping’s administration continues to lean heavily on manufacturing and trade to meet its GDP growth target of 5% for 2025. Analysts project Beijing will report Q2 GDP growth of about 5.1% this week, buoyed by stronger-than-expected trade data.

Shifts in Trade Patterns

While Beijing did not release detailed dollar figures by country, exports to the U.S. fell 9.9% in renminbi terms in the first half of 2025, reflecting the impact of ongoing tensions despite the current truce. Imports from the U.S. dropped 7.7%. In contrast, exports to the European Union rose 7.9%, even as imports declined. Exports to ASEAN countries—under scrutiny from Washington for potential transshipment of Chinese goods—increased by 14.3%.

Trade with Russia also weakened, with exports down 7.4% and imports falling 8.6%. These shifts highlight China’s efforts to diversify trade geographically as it navigates growing geopolitical risks.

Outlook Remains Clouded by Tariffs and Tensions

Yuhan Zhang of The Conference Board noted China’s trade surplus is driven by resilient exports and weak imports, with sectors like robotics seeing notable growth. “China is diversifying its export markets and bolstering advanced manufacturing,” Zhang said.

Despite these gains, analysts caution that tariffs and rising geopolitical tensions, particularly with the U.S., could weigh on trade performance in late 2025 unless Beijing implements further stimulus or finds new markets.