Azerbaijan has launched a broad diplomatic and political offensive against Russia following the deaths of two Azerbaijani brothers in Russian custody, triggering the sharpest crisis in bilateral relations since independence. The fallout includes arrests, cancelled visits, and open accusations of chauvinism and abuse, signalling Baku’s shift away from Moscow’s orbit and toward closer ties with Türkiye and other regional powers.

Tensions escalated after Russian authorities reported that brothers Ziyaddin and Huseyn Safarov died while in custody in Yekaterinburg. Moscow cited heart failure and undetermined causes, but Baku accused Russian police of torture and murder. A post-mortem in Azerbaijan supported these claims, prompting the opening of a criminal investigation.

Azerbaijan’s state prosecutor denounced the “extreme cruelty” involved, while local media and officials blasted Russia for “chauvinist policies” aimed at suppressing minorities. State TV aired searing commentary, accusing Moscow of resenting Azerbaijan’s assertiveness and renewed sovereignty.

From Ally to Adversary

The deaths are the latest in a string of provocations straining ties between the former Soviet partners. Azerbaijan is still demanding justice and compensation for a 2024 incident in which a Russian missile downed an Azerbaijan Airlines jet, killing 38 people. The Kremlin’s muted response has deepened distrust.

In response, Baku cancelled a visit by Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk, suspended all Russian cultural events, and arrested several Russian nationals, including the top editors of Sputnik Azerbaijan, accusing them of espionage and money laundering. Videos aired showed detained Russians being publicly humiliated, further inflaming tensions.

Strategic Realignment Underway

The diplomatic rupture reflects a broader geopolitical recalibration. Azerbaijan is aligning more closely with Türkiye, Pakistan, Israel, and China, and distancing itself from Russian hegemony in the South Caucasus. Analysts note that Baku’s foreign policy has become “independent and bold,” no longer accepting Russia as a senior partner.

“There is growing hostility backed by the Russian state,” Azerbaijani MP Tural Ganjali said. “Azerbaijan has not forgotten the downed civilian aircraft, and Russia’s silence will not be tolerated.”

Former presidential aide Eldar Namazov advocated establishing a Turkish military base in Azerbaijan and even leasing part of it to Pakistan’s nuclear-capable air force. “This is peace through strength,” he said.

Mutual Distrust, But Cautious Moves

Despite the growing animosity, both sides appear cautious about severing ties completely. Russia summoned Azerbaijan’s ambassador to protest “deliberate” provocations, while Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov blamed external forces—especially Ukraine—for stoking tensions.

Trade remains a key link, with Azerbaijan playing a role in Russia’s efforts to access southern trade routes via the North-South Corridor. A large Azerbaijani diaspora also maintains economic ties inside Russia.

“Azerbaijan wants respectful, equal partnerships,” said analyst Zaur Shiriyev. “It will not submit to Moscow’s dominance like Belarus has.”