The al-Qaeda-linked group Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) is rapidly evolving into a proto-state across West Africa, taking advantage of military abuses, collapsing state authority, and a retreating U.S. presence to embed itself from Mali to the Gulf of Guinea.

A Shadow State Emerging in the Sahel

Once a covert militant force, JNIM now openly governs territory stretching from western Mali to northern Benin, enforcing hardline Islamic law, collecting taxes, and forming pacts with local communities. According to the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project, JNIM has killed nearly 6,000 civilians in the past five years.

“They’re creating a belt across the Sahel,” said Héni Nsaibia of ACLED. “It’s an exponential expansion.”

Filling the Void Left by States and the U.S.

After U.S. troops withdrew from Niger, American drone operations were scaled down, and Global Fragility Act programs were shut down under the Trump administration. This retreat has opened space for JNIM to grow. Former U.S. officials now warn that the group directly threatens U.S. national security.

Meanwhile, atrocities by regional governments and militias—often targeting Fulani civilians—have fueled JNIM’s recruitment. In Burkina Faso, local militias killed dozens of Fulani in Solenzo, turning survivors toward the militants. “The alternative was death,” one refugee said.

Expanding South Toward the Atlantic

JNIM has shifted its focus toward coastal countries. In northern Benin, its fighters now openly recruit and operate. A deadly ambush last month killed 54 Beninese soldiers. Ghanaian officials warn that the group is already using Ghana to rest fighters and resupply.

“They want to reach the Atlantic,” said a U.S. official, describing it as a form of “manifest destiny.” Control over the coast would enable massive expansion of smuggling routes.

A Sophisticated Insurgency

Founded in 2017, JNIM merges several Islamist factions under leaders Iyad ag Ghali and Amadou Koufa. The group uses localized “franchise” tactics, adapting to ethnic and cultural dynamics. Some of its leaders are reportedly inspired by Syria’s Ahmad al-Sharaa, who transitioned from jihadist to political ruler after ousting Bashar al-Assad.

Despite strict religious enforcement—including banning schools, music, and state institutions—JNIM maintains relative order in areas it controls, reducing civilian-targeted violence after consolidation.

Financed by Smuggling, Mining, and “Taxes”

JNIM runs lucrative illicit networks across West Africa. Fighters profit from illegal gold mining, drug and arms smuggling, kidnapping, and trucking extortion. A former member described a regional economy partially controlled by JNIM’s taxes and road deals.

Conflict Armament Research says JNIM now fields advanced weapons, including drones and anti-air systems—mostly seized from defeated state forces.