US Intel Sees Iran Attacks on Tankers as Top Strait of Hormuz Risk

U.S. intelligence reporting indicates that direct strikes by Iran on oil tankers represent a greater risk than naval mines in the Strait of Hormuz, the crucial passage for nearly a fifth of global oil trade.

Since the start of the U.S.-Israeli operation against Iran, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has effectively shut down the strait, leaving tankers stranded and contributing to a spike in oil prices.

The Trump administration recently carried out strikes on 16 mine-laying vessels near the strait. Video released by U.S. Central Command showed munitions hitting nine vessels, most of which were stationary.

While mines posed a predictable hazard, U.S. officials see direct attacks at scale—for example, swarms of one-way drones or shore-launched ballistic missiles—as far more potent threats. A single missile or drone breaching defenses could sink a tanker, giving Iran strategic leverage.

Even if U.S. Navy destroyers escort tankers, officials caution that not every incoming missile can be intercepted. Insurance or compensation for shipping operators would not fully alleviate the risk for crews navigating the strait.

Top lawmakers were briefed on the situation in a classified session, where Democrats expressed criticism of the administration’s handling of the strait’s security. Senator Chris Murphy noted on social media that authorities “don’t know how to get it safely back open.”

Despite the U.S. destroying many of Iran’s potential weapons, fears persist. On Wednesday, at least three ships were attacked in or near the strait, including one Japanese container vessel and two bulk carriers.

One of the bulk carriers, the Mayuree Naree, was in the strait when struck, and Iran claimed responsibility. These incidents highlight the ongoing dangers for global shipping in the region.

The Strait of Hormuz connects the Persian Gulf to the northern Arabian Sea, running along Iran’s coastline. With Iran controlling the area militarily, the disruption of tanker traffic has contributed to soaring oil prices, which have translated to higher gasoline costs for U.S. consumers.

Chris Wright told CNN that many of Iran’s weapons capable of hitting ships have been destroyed and that normal shipping traffic is expected to resume in a few weeks, though operators remain cautious.