Sweden and Ukraine have formalized a far-reaching agreement aimed at overhauling Ukraine’s air combat capabilities through the future acquisition and co-production of Saab’s JAS 39E Gripen multirole fighter jet.

The pact, announced on October 22, 2025, at Saab AB’s headquarters in Linköping, represents not merely a weapons deal but a strategic industrial partnership poised to redefine defense cooperation on the continent.

A Long-Term Vision for Air Power and Industry

The Letter of Intent (LOI), signed by Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, lays the foundation for what both leaders described as a “long journey for the next 10–15 years.”

Though not a binding procurement contract, the LOI establishes a political and strategic framework for comprehensive collaboration in the field of air capabilities—encompassing technology transfer, production localization, and sustained industrial cooperation.

“This is the beginning of a massive possible export deal,” Kristersson declared during the signing ceremony. “It will build a new and very strong Ukrainian Air Force.”

President Zelenskyy hailed the agreement as “a historic step toward the full modernization of Ukraine’s skies,” emphasizing that “for our army, Gripen is a priority.”

From Intent to Implementation: 100–150 Gripens in the Plan

The LOI envisions the eventual delivery of 100 to 150 Saab JAS 39E Gripen fighters, a fleet that would constitute one of Eastern Europe’s largest and most modern.

President Zelenskyy has expressed hopes for “at least 100” aircraft, while Swedish officials caution that production realities imply a gradual rollout over a decade or more.

Kristersson outlined a 10–15-year timeline, suggesting initial deliveries could begin “within three years” as production ramps up. Zelenskyy, however, urged a faster track, expecting the “first results” by 2026—a divergence that hints at a two-phase strategy.

Phase one would likely involve the transfer or lease of existing Gripen C/D models, offering Ukraine an immediate capability boost. Phase two would introduce newly built Gripen E fighters as Saab’s production capacity expands.

Financing a Multi-Billion-Euro Project

The financial framework of the deal remains under discussion, with estimates placing the total value between €8.5 and €18 billion, depending on the number of aircraft and support packages.

The LOI specifies that Sweden, Ukraine, and partner nations will “actively seek various opportunities for long-term financing.”

One proposal gaining traction involves the use of frozen Russian sovereign assets to fund Ukraine’s defense modernization—a concept Kristersson acknowledged as “one possible avenue” ahead of a European Council debate on the issue. If realized, this would mark a historic precedent in international sanctions policy.

Building Fighters in Ukraine: Industrial and Strategic Payoffs

Given Saab’s current production rate of 12–24 aircraft per year, fulfilling an order of up to 150 fighters will necessitate substantial localization of production.

President Zelenskyy has emphasized joint manufacturing as a central pillar of the plan, noting that “defense cooperation must create new jobs and technologies inside Ukraine.”

Saab’s previous success in establishing a final assembly line in Brazil for the Gripen E offers a model for replication. A Ukrainian production line could transform the country’s war-damaged defense industry into a modern, NATO-standard aerospace hub.

For Saab, Ukraine’s large order would provide both scale and unique combat data. Ukrainian pilots’ experience against Russian air defenses could feed directly into future Gripen upgrades—a feedback loop that one Saab engineer described as “an R&D opportunity no simulator can replicate.”

Why Gripen Fits Ukraine’s Needs

Ukraine’s selection of the Gripen was guided by operational logic as much as politics.

Designed for Sweden’s Cold War-era “Bas 90” dispersal doctrine, the Gripen can operate from short, improvised runways—including highways—requiring minimal ground infrastructure. This aligns seamlessly with Ukraine’s current strategy of dispersing aircraft to survive Russian missile strikes.

The Gripen was made for this kind of war. It can land, refuel, and rearm on a highway and take off again within minutes.

Ukrainian Air Force spokesperson Yurii Ihnat

The fighter’s low operating cost—estimated at $6,000–$7,000 per flight hour—is another decisive factor.

By comparison, an F-16 Block 70 costs roughly $10,000–$12,000 per hour, while the Eurofighter Typhoon and Rafale exceed €15,000. For Ukraine, sustaining a large, combat-ready fleet at manageable cost is critical for long-term defense viability.

Inside the Gripen E: Smart Fighter for a Smart War

The Gripen E represents a leap over earlier variants, featuring a General Electric F414G engine, increased fuel capacity, and advanced avionics centered around the Leonardo Raven ES-05 AESA radar, Skyward-G IRST, and Arexis electronic warfare suite.

Its architecture allows rapid software updates—a vital capability in adapting to evolving electronic warfare threats.

Armed with the MBDA Meteor beyond-visual-range missile and IRIS-T short-range missile, the Gripen E is optimized for first-look, first-shot engagements.

Saab’s philosophy favors “electronic stealth” over physical invisibility, leveraging jamming and sensor fusion to outmaneuver larger or stealthier opponents.

A Strategic Force Multiplier for Europe

Beyond Ukraine, the partnership enhances Europe’s collective defense posture. A fully modernized Ukrainian Air Force, integrated with NATO systems, would dramatically alter the balance on the alliance’s eastern flank.

The planned addition of Saab’s GlobalEye AEW&C aircraft will further serve as a command-and-control backbone, linking F-16s, Mirages, and Gripens into a unified air defense network.

For Sweden, the program solidifies its status as a security provider rather than a passive observer. For Ukraine, it represents a pathway toward strategic self-reliance and technological modernization.

“This is not just a purchase,” Zelenskyy said. “It is an investment in our future independence, in our industry, and in the security of all Europe.”